How Do You Estimate Answers to Impossible Questions?

TL;DR

Estimate impossible quantities by breaking each question into smaller assumptions, then compare the result with a reasonable reference point. The contestants used this approach most successfully for weekly Greggs sausage-roll sales, estimating 2.1 million against an answer of 2.5 million, but extreme guesses caused large misses on British house bricks, Big Mac sales, and the size of US states.

Transcript

Welcome back to More Sidemen. This is the hardest quiz ever. We got rid of the Dumbos. It's just the smartest four. Let's go. And me. [ __ ] So, this quiz is ridiculously hard. Every question closest wins. Okay. I like it. Hard in what sense? As in there's no way you can know the answer. Oh, okay. For example, the first question. How many Greg's sa... Read More

Key Insights

• The quiz is based on closest-answer estimation rather than ordinary factual recall. The host describes the questions as so difficult that contestants cannot be expected to know the answers, forcing both teams to build guesses from assumptions, comparisons, mental arithmetic, and intuition.
• The stated weekly sales figure for Greggs sausage rolls is 2.5 million in the UK. One team estimates 2.1 million by reasoning about sales per shop, daily tray replenishment, the possible number of Greggs locations, and the number of operating days in a week.
• The stated number of Google searches made in an average day is 8.5 billion. The teams guess 802 million and 1.45 billion, with both estimates falling below the answer despite discussing personal searches and the much heavier search activity that could occur in workplaces.
• The stated share of people willing to tell a close friend that they are a bad parent is 21 percent. The teams answer 36 percent and 12 percent, and the lower estimate wins because its distance from the stated figure is smaller.
• The stated number of bricks in an average British house is 5,100. Estimates of 17,000, 9,000, 9,420, and especially 325,000 show how uncertainty about wall dimensions, internal walls, foundations, and different brick types can inflate a calculation.
• Michael Schumacher's stated career total is 91 Formula 1 Grand Prix victories. The competing answers are 72 and 108, making 108 slightly closer, while one contestant says an earlier personal estimate was 88 before it was changed.
• The stated annual total for Big Macs sold by McDonald's is 900 million. The teams answer 4.2 billion and 24 billion after comparing burger sales with the earlier daily Google-search figure, demonstrating how an unsuitable reference quantity can distort an estimate.
• The stated number of US states larger than the United Kingdom is 11. The teams estimate 26 and 34 after naming large states and struggling to identify smaller ones, while one contestant reveals that an initial answer of 12 would have been much closer.

Questions & Answers

Q: How does the hardest quiz format work?

The quiz uses numerical estimation questions whose answers are described as effectively impossible for the contestants to know directly. Two teams submit guesses, and the team closest to the stated answer wins the round. An exact answer is worth three points. This structure rewards plausible assumptions and calibrated estimates rather than straightforward recall of familiar facts.

Q: How many Greggs sausage rolls are sold in an average UK week?

The stated answer is 2.5 million Greggs sausage rolls per average week in the UK. One team guesses 375,000, while the other estimates 2.1 million. The closer team builds its answer by considering roughly 100 sales per shop each day, repeated tray preparation, about 3,000 Greggs locations, and a weekly total.

Q: How many Google searches are made in an average day?

The quiz gives 8.5 billion as the number of Google searches made in an average day. The teams estimate 802 million and 1.45 billion, so both answers are below the stated total. Their discussion considers how many searches an individual performs and how workplace users might make far more searches during a typical day.

Q: What percentage of people would tell a friend they are a bad parent?

The stated figure is 21 percent for people willing to tell a close friend that they think the friend is a bad parent. The teams submit 36 percent and 12 percent. Although 21 lies between those estimates, 12 percent is closer to the answer, so the team choosing the lower figure wins that round.

Q: How many bricks are in the average British house?

The quiz states that an average British house contains 5,100 bricks. The discussion produces figures including 17,000, 9,000, 9,420, and 325,000 as contestants debate wall height, bricks per wall, internal walls, foundations, and brick types. The 325,000 estimate is mocked as being more appropriate for a mansion than an average house.

Q: How many Formula 1 Grand Prix races did Michael Schumacher win?

The stated career total for Michael Schumacher is 91 Formula 1 Grand Prix victories. One team submits 72 and the other submits 108. Since 108 is slightly closer to 91 than 72 is, that team wins the round. A contestant also says he initially wrote 88 before changing the proposed answer.

Q: How many Big Macs does McDonald's sell each year?

The quiz gives 900 million as the annual number of Big Macs sold by McDonald's. The two submitted estimates are 4.2 billion and 24 billion, both substantially higher than the stated answer. The contestants reach those figures by imagining worldwide consumption and comparing burger sales with the earlier figure for daily Google searches.

Q: How many US states are larger than the United Kingdom?

The stated answer is 11 US states larger in size than the United Kingdom. The teams guess 26 and 34 after discussing states such as California, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Texas, Florida, and Alaska. One contestant initially suggests 12, but the submitted team estimate rises after the group struggles to think of smaller states.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The quiz asks two teams to estimate answers that the contestants are unlikely to know directly. The nearest estimate wins each round, while an exact answer earns three points. Questions cover food sales, internet searches, social behavior, construction, Formula 1 victories, and comparisons between the United States and the United Kingdom.

• The strongest reasoning appears during the Greggs question. One team imagines approximately 100 sausage rolls sold per shop each day, repeated tray preparation, about 3,000 locations, and a weekly total. Their estimate of 2.1 million comes close to the stated answer of 2.5 million, showing how assumptions can produce a useful approximation.

• Other rounds reveal the danger of poorly calibrated assumptions. Estimates of 325,000 bricks, 24 billion annual Big Macs, and 34 US states larger than the United Kingdom greatly exceed the stated answers. The contestants remain competitive through discussion, rough calculations, revised guesses, visual imagination, jokes, and comparisons with quantities from earlier questions.