Gilbert Doctorow on Ukraine's Military Nearing Collapse

TL;DR

The Ukrainian military is suffering disastrous losses across the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, withdrawing under Russian pressure, though its army is not yet wiped out. Russia deliberately advances then stops, baiting Ukrainian counterattacks to destroy manpower rather than racing forward, aiming to prevent another war for a generation.

Transcript

Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Npalitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, September 9th, 2025. Professor Gilbert Doctoro joins us now. Professor Doctor, I know you're uh traveling figuratively and literally, and I appreciate very much the time you've given us and what you've gone through to make this connection so we can chat. I do want to sp... Read More

Key Insights

• The Ukrainian military is suffering disastrous losses across the Donbas, particularly in Donetsk, and in neighboring oblasts including Zaporizhzhia and Kherson on the right bank of the Dnieper, withdrawing under Russian pressure while still retaining an army.
• Russia has no plans to advance beyond the Dnieper River, but may seize Odessa and large parts of other oblasts, which is not the same as wiping out the Ukrainian army entirely.
• Russia's slow, methodical approach is interpreted as deliberately baiting Ukrainian counterattacks then slaughtering them, choosing to destroy manpower rather than pursue fleeing enemies as pure military doctrine would dictate.
• The Israeli Defense Forces attacked Hamas negotiators approaching a session in Doha, Qatar, killing 37 who were about to address Trump's proposals for a cessation of military activity in Gaza.
• The United States is complicit in the Doha attack because it controls Qatari airspace, meaning Israel would need US permission to enter with jets or missiles, permission that was obviously given.
• According to Doctorow's European parliamentary source, the US June bombing of Iran aimed chiefly to prevent an Israeli nuclear strike, with Tehran forewarned so it could remove personnel and critical nuclear material beforehand.
• The power structure in Kiev is showing signs of breakup, evidenced by former foreign minister Kuleba fleeing by stealth across the border just after Zelensky barred diplomats and former diplomats from leaving the country.
• The Kremlin is closely tracking political collapse in Western Europe, including the fall of the Macron-aligned Bayrou government after it lost a confidence vote, feeding both military and political developments to the public via state television.

Questions & Answers

Q: How close is the Ukrainian military to the end of the war?

According to Doctorow, the Ukrainian military is suffering disastrous losses across the Donbas, particularly in Donetsk, and in neighboring oblasts including Zaporizhzhia and Kherson on the right bank of the Dnieper River. They are losing many soldiers and withdrawing under Russian pressure. However, this is not the same as a complete Ukrainian collapse or the army being wiped out. An army still exists, but these embarrassing, politically sensitive defeats should bring down the government.

Q: Why does Putin wage the war slowly and methodically?

Doctorow gives merit to the thesis that Putin fights slowly not out of virtue but to obliterate the Ukrainian army and kill as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible, so Russia need not fight again for at least a generation. Rather than pursuing fleeing enemies as pure military doctrine would suggest, the Russians advance, stop, and bait the Ukrainians into counterattacks where they get slaughtered, indicating they could move faster but prefer to destroy manpower.

Q: What happened to the Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar?

As the interview came on air, breaking news reported that the Israeli Defense Forces attacked Hamas negotiators who were about to enter a negotiating session in Doha, Qatar, with their Israeli counterparts to address President Trump's proposals to bring a cessation of military activity in Gaza. As they approached the site, the IDF attacked and killed 37 of them. Netanyahu later posted that the action against Hamas terrorist chieftains was a wholly independent Israeli operation.

Q: Why is the United States considered complicit in the Doha attack?

Doctorow argues the US is complicit because it controls the airspace in Qatar. For the IDF to use jets or missiles entering that airspace, the United States would have to know about it, and Israel would need US permission, which was obviously given. He notes that the US, which allegedly lured the Hamas negotiators to the site, would have had to know it was luring them to their deaths. Qatar, being subservient to the US, kept quiet about American involvement.

Q: What was the alleged real purpose of the US bombing of Iran in June?

According to Doctorow's European parliamentary source, Trump was aware of Netanyahu's plans to use Israeli nuclear bombs on Iranian sites if Israel acted alone. Trump told Netanyahu to sit still and let the US handle it. The chief point was to prevent an Israeli nuclear strike. The US was in communication with Tehran, so Iran knew what was coming, calibrated its response, and had opportunity to remove personnel and critical nuclear material before the bombing.

Q: How did Qatar respond to the Israeli attack in Doha?

The Qatari foreign minister released a statement strongly condemning the cowardly Israeli attack that targeted residential buildings housing several members of Hamas's political bureau in Doha. Qatar called it a criminal assault and a blatant violation of all international laws and norms, posing a serious threat to Qataris and residents. Qatar confirmed it would not tolerate this reckless Israeli behavior. Notably, there was no condemnation of the United States, which Doctorow says reflects small regional power keeping quiet.

Q: What signs suggest the power structure in Kiev is breaking up?

Doctorow points to the defection of the former minister of foreign affairs, who is now in Lviv having crossed the border by stealth. This occurred just after Zelensky put into effect an edict barring diplomats and former diplomats from leaving the country. Doctorow interprets this as a real sign of the breakup of the power structure in Kiev, alongside the devastating and politically sensitive military defeats on the battlefield that he says should bring down the government.

Q: What is the Kremlin paying attention to in Western Europe?

According to Doctorow, the Kremlin and Russian state television are giving great attention to political collapse in Western Europe, including the fall of the Macron government and Mr. Bayrou, who lost his vote of confidence the day before the interview. The Russians pay close attention to both the political collapse in Europe and the military defeats on the battlefield in Ukraine, feeding both elements to the general public through state television broadcasts.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Judge Andrew Napolitano interviews Professor Gilbert Doctorow on September 9th, 2025, opening with breaking news that the IDF attacked Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar, killing 37 who were about to address Trump's Gaza ceasefire proposals. Doctorow argues the US is complicit because it controls Qatari airspace and would have known about the strike.

• Doctorow relays a European parliamentarian's interpretation that Trump's June bombing of Iran was designed chiefly to prevent an independent Israeli nuclear strike on Iranian sites. Under this reading, the US communicated with Tehran beforehand, giving Iran time to remove personnel and critical nuclear material before the American bombs fell.

• On Ukraine, Doctorow says the military is suffering disastrous, politically sensitive losses across the Donbas and neighboring oblasts, withdrawing under pressure though not yet collapsed. Russia advances methodically, stopping to bait and slaughter Ukrainian counterattacks, seeking to destroy manpower and avoid another war for a generation.