Elon Musk and Sam Altman on AI, Genetics and Mars

TL;DR

Sustainable energy is the most important problem of this century, and solar plus batteries can provide a complete solution for generation and storage. Beyond transport, the internet and multiplanetary life, rewriting genetics and AI are the two fields that can most change humanity's destiny, though both carry serious risk. Mars matters as an insurance policy for life itself.

Transcript

if you took Tesla out of it took Solar City out of it took SpaceX out of it and you said I could go start a new company tomorrow it would be what it would be in what area where would you start thinking about well I think I think there's some uh fairly like there's a fairly obvious opportunity in electric aircraft um because all transport will Elect... Read More

Key Insights

• Electric aircraft is the obvious opportunity Musk names outside his existing companies, because all transport will electrify over time with the ironic exception of rockets. Altman notes his firm is funding an electric airplane company and believes the math should work.
• Rewriting genetics and AI are, in Musk's framing, the two areas that can most change the destiny of humanity, alongside sustainable transport, the internet and making life multiplanetary. He calls both fraught with issues, adding that not doing something may be worse than doing it.
• Musk says he is not a huge proponent of longevity itself, preferring to address what happens to people as they age, such as dementia. Asked how long he wants to live, he answers about 100 good ones in total, and maybe a bit longer.
• Sustainable energy is the most important problem this century according to Musk, a known difficult thing that must be solved. He describes the scientific establishment as unequivocal that continued reliance on burning hydrocarbons leads to a quite bad future.
• Solar plus batteries forms a complete solution for sustainable energy generation in Musk's view, since the Sun is a fusion ball that shows up every day. Using that energy sustainably then requires electric transport on the consumption side.
• Getting the cost of sustainable energy very low is, for Altman, the most important thing for the quality of life of the poorest half of the world, short of friendly AI. He says the cost of energy and quality of life correlate to an amazing degree.
• Fusion's core difficulty is keeping the reaction from extinguishing rather than containing an explosion, because gravitational confinement like the Sun's is impossible on Earth. Engineers must instead use electromagnetic confinement or kinetic confinement by slamming things into each other.
• Making life multiplanetary serves two purposes in Musk's argument: a defensive one, ensuring the light of consciousness is not extinguished by an eventual extinction event, and an inspiring one, an adventure enjoyed vicariously if not personally.

Questions & Answers

Q: What company would Elon Musk start if he did not have Tesla, SpaceX and SolarCity?

Musk says there is a fairly obvious opportunity in electric aircraft, reasoning that all transport will electrify over time with the ironic exception of rockets. Beyond that, he points to two areas he calls fraught with issues: AI and genetics. He frames them as cases where not doing something might be worse than doing it, and says that alongside sustainable transport, the internet and making life multiplanetary, rewriting genetics and AI are the two things that can most change the destiny of humanity. Altman agrees with both picks.

Q: Why does Elon Musk say sustainable energy is the most important problem?

Musk calls sustainable energy the most important problem faced this century and describes it as a known difficult thing that has to be solved. His reasoning is that if reliance on burning hydrocarbons continues, the future is going to be quite bad, a view he says the vast majority of the scientific establishment holds and that anyone with a scientific background finds unequivocal. His proposed solution pairs solar generation with batteries for storage, which he calls a complete solution for sustainable energy generation, combined with electric transport so the energy is also used sustainably.

Q: How does solar plus batteries solve the energy problem?

Musk is a big fan of solar because, as he puts it, there is a big fusion ball in the sky called the Sun and it shows up every day. Solar alone does not cover the whole problem, so pairing it with batteries gives what he calls a complete solution for sustainable energy generation, handling supply across the times the Sun is not delivering. The generation side is only half of it: the energy then has to be used in a sustainable way, which is where electric transport comes in as the consumption counterpart.

Q: What is the risk of fusion energy compared with fission?

Musk says fusion carries essentially no meltdown risk, and that the difficulty runs the other way: the challenge is keeping the reaction going rather than stopping it. With fission there is some meltdown risk, though he notes new technology on the fission front makes that risk extremely low. Sustaining fusion is hard because it requires something very big like the Sun, which uses gravitational confinement. Since gravitational confinement is not available on Earth, engineers must use electromagnetic confinement or kinetic confinement by slamming things into each other, making it tricky to prevent a fusion reaction from immediately extinguishing.

Q: Why does Elon Musk want humans to live on Mars?

Musk gives two main reasons for making life multiplanetary and establishing a self-sustaining civilization on Mars. The defensive reason is insurance: extending life as we know it to another planet so that the light of consciousness is not extinguished, or at least lasts much longer. He argues an extinction event will eventually happen, possibly far in the future but possibly not. The second reason is that it would be an amazing adventure people could enjoy vicariously if not personally. He contrasts a future forever confined to one planet with one where humanity is out exploring the stars.

Q: How much will the Tesla SUV and Model 3 cost?

Musk clarifies that the $132,000 figure is not a base price: the first cars produced are the fully optioned version. A version that is still on the expensive side would be about 75k before any incentives next year, and with incentives and other factors maybe around 65. He calls that a little expensive but not as crazy as 132. In a couple of years, Tesla should have the Model 3, a smaller car with a starting price of $35,000, which he describes as a lot more affordable.

Q: Why does Sam Altman call Tesla a software company with a car attached?

Altman says people think of Tesla like existing car companies, but he views it as a software company with a car attached to it. He describes the driving experience as point and click: you point the wheel somewhere, push the thing down, and it just gets there, without noise and reliably. He calls it the only car with good software and says the Model S is the best car on the market, contrasting it with the Tesla Roadster he owned before, which he says was not the best car. Other electric cars he has driven feel many years behind.

Q: Is Tesla hiding autonomous driving features in its cars?

Asked about the theory that autonomous functionality is being built in unadvertised, waiting for a switch to be flipped, Musk says it is not quite like that and that there is no secret involved. Tesla is going to upload new software soon: version seven turns on highway autopilot, letting the car steer by itself on highways or any kind of road that does not have really steep sharp curves. Musk also describes Tesla as both a software and a hardware company, noting the software component becomes increasingly important, particularly as you get to autonomy.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Asked where he would start a new company if Tesla, SolarCity and SpaceX were off the table, Musk points to electric aircraft, since all transport will electrify over time with the ironic exception of rockets. Beyond that, he names rewriting genetics and AI as the two fields that can most change the destiny of humanity, while calling both dodgy and fraught with difficulty.

• On energy, Musk argues sustainable energy is the century's most important problem, and that continuing to burn hydrocarbons leads to a quite bad future. He favors solar, describing the Sun as a big fusion ball in the sky that shows up every day, and pairs it with batteries for a complete generation solution. Altman expects an end state combining nuclear and solar, roughly 80/20 one way or the other.

• Musk frames Mars as both a defensive move and an adventure: extending life as we know it to another planet so the light of consciousness is not extinguished by an eventual extinction event. On Tesla, he notes the first SUVs produced are fully optioned rather than base price, with a still expensive version at about 75k before incentives next year and a Model 3 starting at $35,000 in a couple of years.