Is Bitcoin's Cycle Top In? Bear Market Path Ahead

TL;DR

Bitcoin most likely topped in October 2025, pointing to a roughly one-year bear market with a probable low around October 2026 near the 200-week moving average. A counter-trend rally back toward the 50-week moving average, possibly near 100K, is expected before the deeper drop, while macro headwinds like sticky inflation persist into mid-2026.

Transcript

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Um, I think we're live. Let me make sure. All right. So, we are certainly working our way down the cliff right now. Um, in general, you know, it's a tough pill to swallow, I think, for a lot of people, but it is what it is. Um, a lot of times we get tops in Q4 the post having year and y... Read More

Key Insights

• Bitcoin tends to top in Q4 of the post-halving year, and October is now the most likely top for this cycle. The view would only change if Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average before a weekly close.
• A one-year bear market is the historical pattern, so if the top was October 2025, the low would probably arrive around October 2026, matching the length of the prior two bear markets.
• This cycle topped on apathy rather than euphoria, more like 2019 than 2021 or 2017, which is why a major low could be watched for as early as May, though October remains the base case.
• The likely destination is the 200-week simple moving average. Bitcoin revisits that level multiple times across its history, sometimes dipping below it, and it tends to happen in midterm years.
• The path down is unlikely to be straight. A counter-trend rally toward the 50-week moving average, potentially back up to 100K, is expected before a drop toward the 200-week moving average later in 2026.
• MicroStrategy behaves like a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, and its current bear market looks almost identical to last cycle's move, suggesting a rally to its bull market support band will form a macro lower high.
• MicroStrategy took about 98 weeks from peak to bottom last cycle, and 98 weeks after its November 2024 top lands in October 2026, aligning with Bitcoin's expected one-year bear market low.
• Macro headwinds are set to continue, with a 60% chance the Fed does not cut rates next month because year-over-year inflation keeps trending up, pressuring crypto markets into mid-2026.

Questions & Answers

Q: Is Bitcoin's cycle top in for 2025?

The speaker believes the most likely outcome is that the top is in, dated to October 2025. Bitcoin always seems to top in Q4 of the post-halving year, and comparing this cycle's ROI from the low and from the peak to the prior two cycles shows a very similar pattern. The only thing that would change this view is if Bitcoin could get back above the 50-week moving average before a weekly close.

Q: When could the Bitcoin bear market bottom occur?

Bitcoin historically has an approximately one-year bear market, with the low arriving about one year after the high. Since the top appears to be October 2025, the low would probably be around October 2026. Because this cycle topped on apathy rather than euphoria, the speaker would start looking for signs of a major low as early as May, but the base case remains October 2026.

Q: Why does the speaker think this cycle top is real rather than just a correction?

Bitcoin has only dropped about 31%, and a prior drop was also around 31% with another near 32%, so it could just be another correction. However, the speaker leans toward the top being in because the ROI charts from the low and the peak match the last two cycles closely, and the four-year cycle tends to make an appearance, making a cycle top the likely outcome.

Q: What price target does the speaker expect for Bitcoin?

The speaker expects the path to ultimately take Bitcoin down to the 200-week simple moving average. Bitcoin revisits that level multiple times throughout its history, sometimes going below it, and it tends to happen in midterm years. The move is not expected to be a straight line down, with a counter-trend rally toward the 50-week moving average, possibly back up to 100K, expected first.

Q: How does MicroStrategy relate to Bitcoin's outlook?

MicroStrategy is described as basically a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, and its current bear market looks almost identical to last cycle's move. It is expected to get a counter-trend rally back up to its bull market support band, forming a macro lower high. That rally would likely coincide with Bitcoin rallying to its 50-week moving average or 200-day moving average, as both aligned in April 2022.

Q: Why is October 2026 significant for MicroStrategy?

Last cycle, MicroStrategy took around 98 weeks from its peak to its bottom. Counting 98 weeks after its November 2024 top lands in October 2026. This is notable because Bitcoin tends to have a one-year bear market and its current top was October 2025, so a Bitcoin low in October 2026 could correspond to MicroStrategy also bottoming in October 2026, since MicroStrategy tracks Bitcoin.

Q: What is the outlook for Ethereum in this environment?

The speaker thinks the ETH/Bitcoin valuation remains in a downtrend until early December. The best bet for Ethereum is if the ETH/Bitcoin valuation can flip bullish in early December, when it normally does, and if it corresponds to a counter-trend rally by Bitcoin. With quantitative tightening ending and a possible interest rate cut, Ethereum could rally, but the guess is this will not happen until December.

Q: How do macro conditions affect the crypto market outlook?

The speaker expects macro headwinds to continue into mid-2026. The labor market got marginally weaker in the unemployment rate, but jobs added went back up and inflation continues to persist. There is a 60% chance the Fed does not cut rates next month because year-over-year inflation keeps trending up. These conditions are the baseline expectation pressuring crypto markets going forward.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is working its way down what the speaker calls the cliff, and the most likely outcome is that the cycle top is already in as of October 2025. Historically Bitcoin tops in Q4 of the post-halving year, and only a reclaim of the 50-week moving average before a weekly close would change that view.

• Comparing ROI from the low and from the peak, this cycle closely matches the last two bear markets if October was the top. Bitcoin has dropped about 31%, similar to prior corrections, but the four-year cycle tends to reassert itself, pointing toward a probable one-year bear market bottoming around October 2026.

• The expected path leads to the 200-week moving average, likely after a counter-trend rally toward the 50-week moving average near 100K. MicroStrategy mirrors this setup, ETH/BTC stays weak until early December, and sticky inflation plus a likely Fed hold keep macro headwinds in place into mid-2026.