Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Still on Schedule?

TL;DR

Bitcoin’s bull market remains on schedule as long as daily closes hold around the crucial $117,000 to $118,000 support zone. The latest $5,600 retreat from the all-time high flushed out leverage without breaking previous turning points, while historical cycles suggest a possible peak through December or the first week of January 2026. Read on for the price, timing, sentiment, and liquidity signals that could confirm or invalidate this outlook.

Transcript

Bull markets were never designed to be an easy ride, and we've seen another example of that in the last 24 hours when Bitcoin lost 5,600 bucks from the all-time high to the day low, but has continued to close in a relatively good position. The last time we saw this was about two months ago when Bitcoin also ran into a new all-time high price and th... Read More

Key Insights

• Bitcoin’s $5,600 high-to-low decline resembles previous selloffs immediately following new all-time highs. Comparable episodes included a $7,000 reversal about two months earlier and sharp declines after the December 2024 and inauguration-related highs, showing that record prices can produce violent short-term corrections.
• The $117,000 to $118,000 region is the central support zone in the bullish thesis. It combines prior market tops, a seven-year resistance line, and proximity to the current move’s 50% level at $116,800, making sustained closes below it an important warning signal.
• A resistance-to-support transition is supporting the positive outlook. Bitcoin previously faced rejection around a long-term line connecting price behavior from 2017 and 2021, including rejections in 2024 and 2025, but the market is now positioned almost safely above that line.
• A decisive breakdown below support could signal the cycle is ending. The analysis expects a return toward recent lows after closes beneath roughly $117,000, and argues that subsequently breaking those lows would mean the market had retraced too far after testing its highs.
• Bitcoin’s historical cycle peaks have occurred about 35 to 37 months after major lows. The current cycle is in its 35th month, which keeps a potential peak through December in play, with the analysis also considering approximately the first week of January 2026.
• Large ETF inflows have coincided with local price tops. Monday recorded $1.2 billion of inflows, described as the second-highest daily amount on record, before Bitcoin corrected, suggesting that intense institutional demand can accompany short-term overheating rather than immediate continuation.
• Market sentiment has cooled without displaying extreme greed or capitulation. Readings moved around 64, 63, and the 70s before declining to 60, while the FOMO indicator remained near its midpoint, leaving room for a healthier reset if price consolidates.
• USDT dominance must break lower to confirm a more aggressive crypto expansion. The analysis identifies approximately 4.1% as an initial trigger and 3.7% as the more important threshold for stablecoin liquidity to move into Bitcoin and altcoins, potentially supporting stronger risk-taking.

Questions & Answers

Q: Is Bitcoin’s bull market still on schedule?

Yes, the bullish structure remains intact because Bitcoin has continued closing above previous turning points despite falling $5,600 from its all-time high to the day’s low. The outlook would weaken if daily closes fell below roughly $117,000 to $118,000, while consolidation above that zone supports another attempt at the highs.

Q: Why did Bitcoin fall after reaching an all-time high?

The decline is presented as a recurring reaction to new all-time highs and a flush of market leverage, rather than immediate proof that the trend has failed. A similar move occurred about two months earlier, when Bitcoin lost 4% in one day and $7,000 from high to low after setting a new record.

Q: What Bitcoin price level is most important for the bullish trend?

The crucial support zone is approximately $117,000 to $118,000. It combines previous market tops, a seven-year resistance line near $118,000, and the current move’s 50% level at $116,800.

Q: What would signal that Bitcoin’s market cycle is ending?

Daily closes beneath roughly $117,000 to $118,000 would be the first major warning and could lead to a test of recent lows. If Bitcoin subsequently broke those lows after testing its highs, the analysis says the retracement may have gone far enough to become a cycle-ending signal.

Q: How does the current Bitcoin cycle compare with earlier cycles?

The current cycle is in its 35th month from the major low. Two earlier cycles peaked after about 35 months, while the genesis cycle peaked after 37 months, leaving a possible topping window through December and approximately the first week of January 2026.

Q: Why are large Bitcoin ETF inflows a potential short-term warning?

Monday’s ETF inflows reached $1.2 billion, described as the second-highest daily amount on record, before Bitcoin pulled back. The analysis notes that unusually large inflows can coincide with local price tops, so intense demand may signal short-term overheating rather than immediate continuation.

Q: What does current Bitcoin market sentiment indicate?

Sentiment remained in greed without reaching extreme greed, with cited readings around 64, 63, the 70s, and then 60. The FOMO indicator stayed near its midpoint, suggesting neither peak enthusiasm nor capitulation and leaving room for a healthier reset.

Q: How can USDT dominance confirm a stronger crypto rally?

The analysis identifies a drop below approximately 4.1% as the first trigger and 3.7% as the more important threshold. USDT dominance was still moving sideways, so the shift from stablecoin liquidity into Bitcoin and altcoins associated with stronger risk-taking had not yet been confirmed.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin fell approximately $5,600 from its all-time high to the day’s low, echoing earlier post-record selloffs. Despite the volatility, price remained above important turning points. The analysis treats the retreat primarily as a leverage reset, while identifying the $117,000 to $118,000 region as the crucial support area for the bullish structure.

• Historical Bitcoin cycles reached major peaks roughly 35 to 37 months after their lows. The current market is in its 35th month, leaving a possible topping window extending through December and potentially into the first week of January 2026. Ethereum’s January 2018 peak illustrates how other assets can continue rising after Bitcoin tops.

• Sentiment and liquidity indicators remain mixed but broadly constructive. ETF inflows reached $1.2 billion on Monday, the second-highest daily amount on record, before the pullback. Fear and greed readings cooled without reaching extreme greed, while USDT dominance remained sideways and needed to fall below 4.1%, then 3.7%, to indicate stronger crypto risk-taking.