Will AOC or Newsom Be the 2028 Democratic Nominee?

TL;DR

Gavin Newsom leads early 2028 Democratic polling at 37% but faces skepticism over California's projected $18 billion budget deficit. Scott Jennings argues Newsom will not be the nominee, predicting the party's socialist energy could favor AOC or an outsider. On a betting market, Newsom sits at 37, AOC at 10, and Kamala Harris at 6.

Transcript

you know, 2028 front runner uh political touts to be Gavin Newsome as the candidate to run for president. Okay, front runner. Meanwhile, California is facing projected $18 billion deficit as Newsome's heads into his last year as governor. Okay. So, when you look at Rob, is this the one with this is the deficit? This is a newscast reporting the defi... Read More

Key Insights

• California faces a projected $18 billion budget deficit heading into Governor Gavin Newsom's last year, roughly $5 billion larger than Newsom initially expected, per the state's Legislative Analyst Office report.
• The deficit is blamed on multiple factors including Trump administration federal funding cuts, Proposition 98 minimum funding guarantees for K-12 schools and community colleges, stock market volatility, and rising costs in major state programs.
• Scott Jennings believes Newsom is the polling front-runner now but will not be the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee, citing two likely paths: socialist energy elevating AOC, or the party turning to a total outsider.
• Jennings compares Democrats' situation to Republicans after 2012, when a decimated party fed up with insiders turned to an outsider, Donald Trump, who was not part of the political structure.
• The panel argues AOC has grassroots and social media energy but a thin legislative resume, being a Bronx congresswoman, while Kamala Harris was an attorney general, senator, and vice president.
• Bernie Sanders is described as the 'Godfather' of the party's socialist movement who nearly won the nomination twice but was held off both times, with panelists doubting he could be held off again.
• On a betting market, Newsom sits at 37, AOC at 10, and Kamala Harris at 6, with a cumulative wager around $28 million placed at roughly 80% through the betting period.
• The panel claims Democratic voters are driven by emotion rather than resume, arguing name recognition makes early front-runners look strong while candidates like AOC better reflect the base's energy.

Questions & Answers

Q: How big is California's projected budget deficit for next year?

California is facing a projected budget shortfall of almost $18 billion next year, according to the California Legislative Analyst Office. The report predicts the shortfall will be about $5 billion larger than Governor Gavin Newsom initially expected. The state's Department of Finance says the estimate is not off and is something the state has been expecting heading into the next year, calling it a priority for the governor and the legislature.

Q: What is causing California's $18 billion budget deficit?

The state blames the deficit on a number of factors. These include cuts to federal funding by the Trump administration over the past year and spending on education, specifically Proposition 98, which guarantees minimum funding for K-12 schools and community colleges. HD Palmer with the Department of Finance also cited record federal uncertainty, volatility in the stock markets, and increasing pressures from costs and caseload in some of the state's major programs.

Q: Why does Scott Jennings think Gavin Newsom won't be the 2028 nominee?

Scott Jennings acknowledges Newsom might be the polling front-runner now but does not believe he will be the nominee. He sees two likely roads for Democrats: the socialist energy in the party may lead them to nominate AOC, or the party is like Republicans were after 2012, fed up and wanting a total outsider from completely outside the system. He compares it to how a decimated Republican party turned to Trump, who was not part of the structure.

Q: Who does the panel think could be the 2028 Democratic nominee?

The panel discusses several possibilities. Newsom is the current polling front-runner. Jennings points to AOC riding the party's socialist energy, or a total outsider like Stephen A. Smith. Tom reportedly thinks it will be JB Pritzker, though Jennings dismisses Pritzker as a standard-issue politician and a billionaire the anti-billionaire party won't want. Bernie Sanders is called the 'Godfather' who nearly won twice, and panelists doubt he could be held off again.

Q: What is the argument against AOC being a strong nominee?

The panel argues AOC has a thin record despite her social media following. One panelist notes she is a congresswoman in the Bronx who has, in their view, done nothing, asking what bills she has passed and demanding to see her accomplishments. They contrast her with Kamala Harris, who was at least an attorney general, senator, and vice president. They also mock AOC's speaking style as shrieky and hard to listen to for a long speech.

Q: What do the betting numbers say about the 2028 Democratic candidates?

According to figures cited on the show, the betting market has Newsom at 37, AOC at 10, and Kamala Harris at 6. The cumulative wager is around $28 million, placed at roughly 80% of the way through the betting period. Several panelists say they would buy AOC and fade Harris, stating they would put their money on AOC at those odds despite doubting she could win a general election.

Q: Why does the panel say Democrats vote based on emotion?

A panelist argues that voters, and Democrats in particular, choose presidential candidates on emotion rather than resume. They claim this is why an early front-runner like Newsom looks strong through name recognition and favorable mainstream media coverage, while a candidate like AOC succeeds by reflecting the base's energy. The panel points to New York voters supporting Mamdani overwhelmingly as evidence of this emotional, socialist-driven dynamic in the party.

Q: What does the panel say a Democratic president's first priority would be?

A panelist claims that whoever the Democrats nominate, even an outsider, their first order of business, especially for Newsom, would be to open the border, predicting an invasion coming right back on day one. They also assert Democrats would give money to people in the country illegally and actively try to reverse Trump's tariffs, which the panelist argues are generating billions and going well, warning they would reverse anything going right.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• A California newscast reports the state faces a projected $18 billion budget deficit next year, about $5 billion larger than Governor Newsom expected. The Department of Finance attributes it to Trump administration federal cuts, Proposition 98 school funding guarantees, stock market volatility, and increasing pressure from costs and caseloads in major state programs.

• Scott Jennings says Newsom is the current polling front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination but predicts he will not win it. He sees two roads: the party's socialist energy nominating AOC, or a fed-up party turning to an outsider like Stephen A. Smith, mirroring how Republicans turned to Trump after 2012.

• The panel debates AOC versus Kamala Harris, noting AOC is seen as a stronger talent but has passed no notable bills as a Bronx congresswoman. They cite betting numbers of Newsom 37, AOC 10, Harris 6, and several say they would bet on AOC and fade Harris.