Rise of the Asian Century with Kishore Mahbubani | SALT iConnections Asia

TL;DR

Kishore Mahbubani argues that Asia’s prospects are improving even as U.S.-China competition intensifies. The Biden meeting restored civilized dialogue and reaffirmed the U.S. One China policy, but Washington’s effort to slow China’s rise through measures such as the Chips Act will continue. ASEAN may gain from greater courtship by major powers and deeper regional economic integration, making the discussion worth reading for its balanced view of Asian risks and opportunities.

Transcript

foreign welcome to the last session before lunch and the best one of the morning my name is James Crabtree I run the international institute for strategic studies here in Singapore and it's my great pleasure to be acting as the Fireside moderator for my good friend and former boss Kishore mabubani Kishore I'm sure many of you will know is a multipl... Read More

Key Insights

• ♊ The meeting between G and Biden brought about both positive and negative changes in US-China relations.
• 😮 The US's goal to hinder China's rise will persist, leading to potential economic measures and tensions between the two countries.
• 😄 The Taiwan issue remains dangerous, but recent meetings have eased tensions for now.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why does Kishore Mahbubani describe the Biden meeting as both changing everything and changing nothing in U.S.-China relations?

It changed everything by restoring civilized dialogue and creating the prospect of real communication between the United States and China. It changed nothing because Mahbubani believes the U.S. goal of stopping China from becoming the leading global power will persist.

Q: Will U.S.-China tensions continue despite the constructive meeting?

Yes. Mahbubani expects greater tension and competition because the United States will continue trying to slow China’s economic growth, including through measures such as the Chips Act.

Q: How did the meeting affect the Taiwan issue?

Mahbubani says the meeting helped moderate one of the most dangerous points in the relationship. He considers Biden’s reaffirmation that the U.S. One China policy had not changed an important direct assurance.

Q: Could Taiwan cause a war between the United States and China?

Mahbubani identifies Taiwan as the issue most capable of causing a war between the two powers. He says China would declare war if Taiwan declared independence.

Q: How does U.S.-China competition create opportunities for ASEAN?

Mahbubani says geopolitical contests create opportunities as well as dangers. As ASEAN becomes important again, courtship from China and other powers is likely to increase and create significant growth opportunities for Southeast Asian countries.

Q: Why is Mahbubani bullish about East Asia’s regional economy?

He points to China’s rapidly expanding trade with ASEAN and expects greater economic opportunities across the region. He is also encouraged by the takeoff of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Q: How has ASEAN’s strategic importance changed over time?

Mahbubani says ASEAN was courted by major powers during the Cold War and then considered less important after it ended. It matters again as powers compete for influence in Southeast Asia.

Q: Which Kishore Mahbubani books are mentioned in the discussion?

The conversation mentions “The Rise of the Asian Century,” described as a collection of essays. It also mentions his provocatively titled book “Has China Won?”

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The G and Biden meeting signified a shift towards civilized dialogue and real communication between the US and China.

• Despite this, the US's goal to prevent China from becoming number one will persist through measures like the Chips Act.

• The tensions between the US and China will continue to impact geopolitics, potentially leading to more crises between the two powers.