Do You Know Which Popular Tech is Being Over-Hyped?

TL;DR

Self-driving cars may be facing a similar hype cycle as 3D printing did a few years ago, with many companies and investors jumping on board but the technology likely being further out than anticipated.

Transcript

Chris Hill: Last time you were here, we were talking about how a couple of years ago, Matt Argersinger went to CES and was struck by how many 3D printing companies there were, and he just shook his head and thought, "This is not going to end well for the vast majority of these companies." David Kretzmann: Yeah, and there weren't many this year. Hil... Read More

Key Insights

• 🚙 CES showcased a significant focus on connected cars, self-driving vehicles, and autonomous vehicles, suggesting widespread interest in the technology.
• 😨 Future adoption of self-driving cars will depend on factors such as advancements in technology, consumer acceptance, and regulatory frameworks.
• 🎠 Similar to 3D printing, self-driving cars may have relevant uses and potential benefits but may not live up to the initial hype in terms of widespread adoption.
• 😨 Companies should be cautious about investing in self-driving cars based solely on current hype, as seen with previous cases like 3D printing.
• 😨 The shift towards self-driving cars will require time for consumers to adopt and trust the technology, as well as improvements in infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.
• 😨 The potential benefits of self-driving cars, such as increased safety and efficiency, should be viewed within a realistic timeline for widespread adoption.
• 😨 General Motors' investment in Lyft and Ford's expected joint venture with Google further indicate interest and investment in the future of self-driving cars.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why is self-driving car technology being compared to the hype around 3D printing?

Both technologies experienced a peak of inflated expectations, where everyone believed they would revolutionize every industry. However, reality set in, and 3D printing turned out to have limited applications, which may be the case for self-driving cars as well.

Q: What were some notable trends regarding self-driving cars at CES?

Nearly every booth at CES showcased companies connected to self-driving cars and autonomous vehicles. Auto manufacturers and sensor companies heavily promoted their involvement in this technology.

Q: Are companies rushing to invest in self-driving cars?

Companies see the potential in self-driving cars and are making investments, much like they did with 3D printing. However, past experiences show that rushing into investments based on hype may not be a wise decision.

Q: What is the timeline for self-driving cars becoming mainstream?

The development and adoption of self-driving cars will likely take place over the course of 10 or more years. It requires improvements in technology, sensors, and infrastructure, as well as time for consumers to adapt.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The hype cycle surrounding 3D printing a couple of years ago is compared to the current hype around self-driving cars at CES.

• Companies are heavily investing in self-driving car technology, but it is not expected to become mainstream or realistic in the near future.

• Similar to 3D printing, self-driving cars may have relevant uses, but widespread adoption and elimination of car ownership will take time.