Macro Views: Identifying Investment Themes in a Late-Stage Bull Market | Summary and Q&A

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July 8, 2019
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SALT
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Macro Views: Identifying Investment Themes in a Late-Stage Bull Market

TL;DR

The panel discusses the current state of the bull market, including the potential impact of the US-China trade deal and escalating tariffs. They also touch on the role of social and cultural pressures on companies and the possibility of a sustained pullback in the S&P.

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Questions & Answers

Q: What is the likelihood of the US raising tariffs on Chinese goods and how will it impact the economy?

While the exact probability is uncertain, there is a belief that President Trump favors tariffs. The short-term impact may not be significant, but the threat of additional tariffs on consumer goods could have a broader economic impact.

Q: How are investors reacting to the unpredictability of the current political and policy environment?

Investors are taking a defensive approach, expecting policy risk from the White House. They are cautious and uncertain about the next moves and how they can impact the market.

Q: Is it possible to capitalize on market volatility when it occurs, or is it too fast and difficult to time?

Timing market volatility is challenging, but having the right asset allocation and preparing for volatility before it happens can help investors navigate through uncertain times.

Q: Why are wealthy individuals putting a large portion of their funds into cash amid the trade war uncertainty?

The move to cash is driven by nervousness and uncertainty. The wealthy perceive cash as a safer and more liquid investment option during periods of market volatility.

Summary & Key Takeaways

  • The panel discusses the potential impact of the US-China trade deal negotiations, specifically focusing on the potential increase in tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding it.

  • They analyze the current economic environment, considering factors such as policy risk, volatility, and the impact of DC politics on the market.

  • The discussion also highlights the amount of cash on the sidelines and the potential economic impact of the trade war.

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