Martin Reeves


22 Quotes

"Forecasts are predictions about what will happen in the future based on information currently available. As such, they are exercises of imagination, which studies have shown are rarely correct in their particulars."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Despite being reliably incorrect, savvy leaders can find strategic value from forecasts."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Pandemic-driven raw material and labor shortages will initially keep supply chains vulnerable but will revert to normal as businesses and consumers adapt."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Consumers will expect personalization and businesses will leverage technology to create personalized experiences at scale (e.g., music, diets)."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Digital and crypto currencies will proliferate as central banks introduce digital currencies of their own."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Decarbonization will be an increasing concern for consumers and both the public and private sector."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Flexible work will support continued migration from mega-urban centers (such as New York or San Francisco) to suburbs and tier 2 cities."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Capital shifts from commercial to residential real estate will continue, driven by declining office rents (down 15% in San Francisco) and increasing office vacancies (down 20% in San Francisco)."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Space technologies will proliferate through both privately and publicly funded initiatives."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"For example, there are five moon missions planned in 2022 by Japan, India, South Korea, the U.S., and Russia."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Decentralized IoT applications will gain traction, powered by edge connectivity and computing."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Accelerated investment in climate tech will continue, particularly in areas such as electric aviation, battery technology, and negative emissions technology."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Metaverse and AR/VR will become more mainstream, but widespread adoption will be limited."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Web3 will see continued private investment to build platforms, improve scalability, and ease of use but will have little immediate impact."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Rising multipolar globalization will create more regions with competing interests, increasing the risk of a global conflict, as we’re currently seeing in the Ukraine and may well see in the Middle East and South China Sea."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"1. Look at many forecasts, not one."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"2. Look at underlying variables."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"3. Look at areas of convergence and divergence."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"4. Look for white space."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"5. Look at how predicted trends may shape the nature of competitive advantage."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"6. Assess your organization’s future readiness."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable
"Executives who identify the hidden truths within false forecasts may gain a better understanding of the present and perceive early indicators of the future, giving them a leg up in gaining and maintain competitive advantage."
Martin Reeves
Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable

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