"The Next Phase of Social? Listen Closely: The Early Days of AI"

"The Next Phase of Social? Listen Closely: The Early Days of AI"

The draw of audio apps over other traditional formats is obvious to any podcast (and music) devotee: the ease. In contrast, audio startups face a less crowded and less competitive landscape. Listening to someone’s voice is personal, and hearing unedited audio is the opposite of seeing the highlights. It’s about ideas, not the visuals, so it emphasizes a different kind of content that can often feel deeper and more intellectually stimulating.

In recent years, listening to podcasts has become more mainstream; today, more than half the US population has listened to roughly a million shows. That emotion that audio can stoke—the swell of a concert, a baby’s laugh, the roar of a stadium crowd—is inherently social. Though audio apps may have begun with podcasting and audio books, I’m convinced we’re on the front-end of a decade of innovation in social audio experiences.

Clubhouse provides yet another example. The experience is somewhere between a conference call, a podcast, and a live talk show. Although the content is ephemeral, like a phone call, it’s also a horizontal and public platform, which is more like live podcasting. If you were to mix and match each of the attributes above, there are many thousands of possible configurations that might lead to new, cohesive products.

"The Next Phase of Social? Listen Closely" and "Early days of AI" share a common thread: the anticipation of innovation. While the former focuses on the future of social audio experiences, the latter explores the early days of a new era in AI. Both highlight the potential for new capabilities and products that will shape their respective fields.

In the realm of social audio, innovation is expected to emerge in three main areas: content format, business models, and ubiquity of audio. As the popularity of podcasts and audio books continues to grow, there is room for new types of audio content that cater to specific interests and preferences. For example, a future product might be long-form, focusing on high-quality educational content or short stories from prominent authors.

The evolution of the business model is also a key aspect to consider. Traditional ad-driven models may not fully capitalize on the potential of social audio. Fans of creators are willing to pay more for exclusive content, suggesting that native social audio monetization could unlock the next generation of social companies.

Furthermore, the growing ubiquity of audio indicates that there is a demand for audio experiences in various forms. Just as messaging and video have evolved over time, audio is poised for a similar transformation. It is likely that new formats, such as voice and video, will be integrated into social audio experiences, expanding the possibilities even further.

Similarly, the early days of AI mark a discontinuity from the past. The advancements in LLMs, Transformers, and diffusion models represent a step function in new capabilities and products enabled by AI. This new era of tech is still in its infancy, and there are likely to be multiple waves of AI to come.

Wave 1 consisted of GenAI native companies that have gained significant revenue and user traction, showcasing the potential of AI-powered products. Wave 2, the current wave, sees early startup adopters and fast mid-market incumbents launching products built on top of advanced AI models. These startups and companies are paving the way for the next wave of startups in Wave 3, which will explore new formats and verticals, further expanding the use of natural language and AI infrastructure.

In Wave 4, which is expected to arrive in 2024 or 2025, the first big enterprise adopters will emerge. These larger companies will showcase fully developed AI products that outperform human capabilities in various fields. Google's MedPaLM2 model, for example, has already demonstrated superior performance compared to human physicians.

As we look to the future of both social audio and AI, there are actionable advice that can be derived from these insights:

1. Embrace the power of audio: Whether you're a content creator or a business, consider the potential of audio experiences. Explore different formats and find ways to leverage the personal and social nature of audio to connect with your audience.

2. Innovate your business model: Don't limit yourself to traditional ad-driven models. Explore native social audio monetization and find ways to offer exclusive content or experiences that fans are willing to pay for. Think outside the box and experiment with different revenue streams.

3. Stay ahead of the curve: Keep an eye on emerging technologies and trends in both social audio and AI. Be proactive in adopting new capabilities and exploring how they can benefit your business or personal endeavors. Don't wait for peak adoption or hype; instead, be a pioneer in leveraging these innovations.

In conclusion, the next phase of social audio and the early days of AI present exciting opportunities for innovation and growth. By listening closely to the potential of audio and embracing the advancements in AI, we can tap into new realms of creativity, connectivity, and value creation. The future is waiting, and it's up to us to shape it.