Kazuki
@kazuki
Cofounder of Glasp. I collect ideas and stories worth sharing 📚
San Francisco, CA
Joined Oct 9, 2020
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www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2023/01/24/learning-age-decline/
Oct 5, 2023
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medium.com/@nesmann/establishing-a-reading-habit-5e33ac3b20e0
Oct 3, 2023
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collabfund.com/blog/a-few-things-im-pretty-sure-about-0923/
Sep 27, 2023
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www.wsj.com/articles/BL-232B-2715
Sep 24, 2023
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www.anthropic.com/index/prompting-long-context
Sep 23, 2023
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blog.eladgil.com/p/unicorn-market-cap-2023-rise-of-ai
Sep 23, 2023
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ryanholiday.net/these-38-reading-rules-changed-my-life/
Sep 16, 2023
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collabfund.com/blog/respect-and-admiration/
Sep 16, 2023
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arxiv.org/pdf/2308.09045.pdf
Sep 16, 2023
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digitalnative.substack.com/p/when-ai-begins-to-replace-humans
Sep 14, 2023
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twitter.com/snowmaker/status/1696026604030595497
Sep 12, 2023
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www.sarahtavel.com/p/ai-startups-sell-work-not-software
Sep 5, 2023
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meaningness.com/geeks-mops-sociopaths
Sep 5, 2023
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www.theverge.com/2023/8/25/23845590/note-taking-apps-ai-chat-distractions-notion-roam-mem-obsidian
Sep 2, 2023
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latecheckout.substack.com/p/what-kind-of-startup-are-you-building
Sep 1, 2023
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amasad.me/meta
Aug 31, 2023
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matt-rickard.com/the-contrarian-strategy-of-openai
Aug 30, 2023
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www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2023/8/27/generative-ai-ad-intellectual-property
Aug 30, 2023
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www.thetinywisdom.com/finding-meaning/
Aug 29, 2023
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pear.vc/perspectives-in-ai-from-llms-to-reasoning-with-edward-hu-inventor-of-lora-and-%CE%BCtransfer/
Aug 26, 2023
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blog.eladgil.com/p/early-days-of-ai
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blockbuster.thoughtleader.school/p/stephen-kings-3-secrets-to-selling-books
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dougshapiro.medium.com/power-laws-in-culture-27ab6461c693
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jamesclear.com/stay-on-the-bus
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nesslabs.com/science-of-motivation
Aug 15, 2023
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collabfund.com/blog/a-few-stories-about-big-decisions/
Aug 11, 2023
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www.indiependent.land/p/a-meaningful-and-learning-focused
Aug 10, 2023
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jillianhess.substack.com/p/lets-talk-notes-how-do-you-organize
Aug 9, 2023
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www.justinmind.com/blog/double-diamond-model-what-is-should-you-use/
Aug 9, 2023
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a16z.com/2023/08/03/the-economic-case-for-generative-ai-and-foundation-models/
Aug 5, 2023
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book.stevejobsarchive.com/
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twitter.com/mikemcg0/status/1687090024196472832
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www.notboring.co/p/when-to-dig-a-moat
Aug 2, 2023
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collabfund.com/blog/rich-and-anonymous/
Jul 31, 2023
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www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2022/12/06/obvious-advice/
Jul 28, 2023
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collabfund.com/blog/everything-is-cyclical/
Jul 28, 2023
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyrKqq1SvnM
Jul 28, 2023
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every.to/p/how-to-build-a-successful-consumer-subscription-business
Jul 26, 2023
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collabfund.com/blog/why-you-believe-the-things-you-do/
Jul 26, 2023
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hatch.glasp.co/kazuki/p/lsFVpdJj9cS0HPDutoMm
Jul 24, 2023
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Rather then view LLMs, Transformers, and diffusion models as part of a continuum with past "AI", it is worth thinking of this as an entirely new era and discontinuity from the past
Value in prior AI waves went largely to incumbents over startups - as the capabilities were not advanced enough to create new market openings.
When many business people talk about “AI” today, they treat it as a continuum with past capabilities of the CNN/RNN/GAN world. In reality it is a step function in new capabilities and products enabled, and marks the dawn of a new era of tech.
ChatGPT’s launch was the starting gun for mainstreaming that AI is a big deal in terms of new capabilities.
Given that large enterprise planning cycles often take 3-6 months, and then prototyping and building will take a year for a large company, we are still very far away from peak AI usage or peak AI hype.
there are likely at least 4 waves of AI to consider in these early days.
Wave 1: GenAI native companies. ChatGPT, Midjourney, Character.AI, Stable Diffusion, Github copilot, and other early launches that have now gained significant revenue and user traction.
Wave 2 (current wave): Early startup adopters and fast mid-market incumbents. This is the first wave of startups to launch on top of GPT-3.5/4 like Perplexity, Langchain, Harvey or others. In parallel, a small number of founder led multi-billion companies like Navan, Notion, Quora, Replit, and Zapier launched AI-powered products quickly and are the early adopters of the wave.
Wave 3 (coming soon): Next wave of startups currently being founded. It will be exciting to see what is in this mix and may include new formats like voice and video in addition to using natural language in more verticals and more ways, as well as new types of infrastructure. Companies like Eleven Labs/LMNT/LFG Labs, Braintrust, and many more will provide incremental experiences.
Wave 4 (coming 2024/2025?): First big enterprise adopters. Since enterprise planning and build cycles are so long, anticipate the first really products (versus demos or prototypes) from larger companies other than MSFT, Adobe, Google, Meta to start to show up in a year or two.
Google’s MedPaLM2 model outperforms human physicians to such a strong degree that having medical experts RLHF the model makes it worse (!).