Why Does Bitcoin Win by Not Playing the Time Game?

TL;DR

Bitcoin wins in a fast-moving market because, in Jordy Visser’s view, it is not based on time while everything else is. He calls Bitcoin the “S&P 500 of 10 years from now” as AI accelerates markets, earnings grow above 30% year over year, and investors struggle to adapt to new information. Read on for his reasoning about Bitcoin, AI stocks, inflation, rates, and risk-reward.

Transcript

The reason Bitcoin to me is the ultimate choice, it is the S&P 500 of 10 years from now, is not because of anything special about it from an innovation perspective. It's because it doesn't suffer from time because it's not based on time. Everything else is based on time and people are going to have to start to process that cuz the world is spinning... Read More

Key Insights

• Bitcoin is not based on time, offering a unique resilience in fast-paced markets.
• AI is driving rapid changes in the market, affecting earnings and economic dynamics.
• Figure Technologies is growing rapidly, challenging traditional banks with its innovative approach.
• Inflation is lower than expected due to various economic factors and AI's deflationary pressures.
• AI is becoming integral in everyday life, from household management to economic forecasting.
• The AI market is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Anthropic preparing for IPOs.
• Political and regulatory landscapes are influencing AI and crypto markets, creating both challenges and opportunities.
• The intersection of AI, crypto, and traditional finance presents significant growth potential for innovative companies.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why does Bitcoin win by not playing the time game?

Jordy Visser argues that Bitcoin does not suffer from time because it is not based on time, while everything else is. He sees that distinction as increasingly important because the world is moving faster than ever.

Q: Why does Jordy Visser call Bitcoin the S&P 500 of 10 years from now?

Visser calls Bitcoin the ultimate choice and the “S&P 500 of 10 years from now.” He says this is not because Bitcoin is uniquely innovative, but because it is not constrained by time.

Q: Why are stocks still rising despite bearish sentiment?

Visser points to growing earnings and says the S&P is not rising as quickly as earnings. He projects year-over-year earnings growth above 30%, while the S&P’s annualized performance would be around 20% if the current pace continues, implying multiple compression.

Q: What does the recent economic data suggest about inflation and interest rates?

Inflation has continued to surprise on the lower end even as investors worry it will rise. Visser also cites a negative payroll number, a lower PPI surprise, soft retail sales, and two-year rates remaining well above the Fed funds rate, making built-in rate hikes seem surprising to him.

Q: How is AI affecting the economy and the stock market?

Visser says the economy is good, but most of that strength is occurring within AI. He believes many investors are having difficulty embracing this shift and expects the market to keep climbing a “wall of AI worry” for a long time.

Q: What happened to the AI market after its sharp decline?

Visser says an AI index chart broke down sharply in roughly a month, but the Kospi 200 was still up 70% year to date. He viewed the situational-awareness event as a market-clearing moment that made the probabilities and risk-reward more attractive.

Q: Does Jordy Visser try to call market tops and bottoms?

No. He argues that calling exact tops and bottoms is impossible and instead changes his view as new information alters the probabilities and risk-reward.

Q: Why did Jordy Visser begin rebuilding his Micron position?

He began buying below 900 and acquired some shares in the 700s after receiving new information. Earnings exceeded expectations, long-term agreements suggested less-cyclical earnings, compute demand appeared to accelerate, and DRAM prices rose, increasing his confidence that the price could be higher by year-end.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin's resilience stems from its timeless nature, making it a strong asset in a rapidly evolving market driven by AI and technology. As AI influences economic dynamics, Bitcoin's unique characteristics provide stability and potential for growth.

• AI's rapid market integration is reshaping traditional financial systems, with companies like Figure Technologies outpacing legacy banks. This shift highlights the potential for innovative financial solutions to disrupt established institutions.

• Despite lower-than-expected inflation, AI's deflationary impact and technological advancements continue to shape economic trends. The discussion emphasizes the importance of adapting to new information and market conditions in investment strategies.