Is the Bitcoin Market Cycle Lengthening After the Halving?

TL;DR

The Bitcoin market cycle will lengthen from the halving if Bitcoin sets a new all-time high beyond the day marking the prior cycle’s duration. Earlier halving-based cycles lasted about 360 days and over 500 days, while confirmation measured from the market bottom still requires at least another month. The distinction between these two measurements, and why the speaker expects the cycle to continue, makes the full analysis worth reading.

Transcript

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about the fact that if bitcoin can take out the prior all-time high then we will officially lengthen as measured from the having okay so this is a pretty significant deal here i know a lot of people have been skeptical of the idea of of the cycle lengthening now... Read More

Key Insights

• The Bitcoin cycle officially lengthens from the halving if price takes out the prior all-time high beyond today, because today is the last day the previous cycle ran as measured from the halving.
• Cycle length from the halving has grown each time: the first cycle lasted about 360 days and the second cycle lasted over 500 days, forming the basis for expecting further lengthening.
• Lengthening from the market cycle bottom is a separate, stricter test that still requires at least a month more, so the cycle is not yet lengthened by that measure.
• Measured from the bottom, cycle durations have expanded from a little over 200 days, to over 700 days, to roughly 1,100 days, supporting the argument that this cycle still has room to run.
• Bitcoin is not tracking the prior cycle's pace: it is up about 20x from the bottom now, whereas at the same point last cycle it was up about 40x, implying a price above $120,000 that has not been reached.
• Diminishing returns are expected because avoiding them would require exceeding $300,000; applying the last cycle's 100x ROI from the bottom points to about $310,000, which the speaker considers highly unlikely this cycle.
• September was correctly identified as typically a down month for Bitcoin, and it fell about negative 7 percent from September 1st to September 30th, contradicting golden-ratio calls for a September top.
• Using all available data revealed in early summer that the market was too far ahead of schedule and needed a three-to-six-month lull before continuing higher, which is what played out.

Questions & Answers

Q: Is the Bitcoin market cycle lengthening after the halving?

It will officially lengthen as measured from the halving if Bitcoin exceeds its prior all-time high beyond the day marking the previous cycle’s duration. The speaker says Bitcoin is on the cusp of meeting that condition, but lengthening from the market cycle bottom has not yet been confirmed.

Q: What must Bitcoin do to confirm a lengthened cycle from the halving?

Bitcoin must set a new high beyond its prior all-time high after the final day corresponding to the previous halving-based cycle. Even if it reaches a new high and then corrects, the speaker does not believe that would necessarily mark the market cycle top.

Q: How long did earlier Bitcoin cycles last when measured from the halving?

The first cycle lasted about 360 days from the halving, while the second lasted over 500 days. The speaker uses that progression to support the possibility that the current cycle will also be longer.

Q: Why does the speaker prefer measuring Bitcoin cycles from the market bottom?

Bitcoin had already risen more than 2x by the time it reached the halving, so measuring only from the halving excludes an earlier 2x or 3x move. The speaker still considers halving-based analysis useful because many people follow it, but prefers the bottom as the more complete starting point.

Q: Has the Bitcoin cycle lengthened when measured from the market bottom?

No, lengthening from the market cycle bottom had not yet been confirmed. The speaker says it required at least another month, and a parabolic rise during the next 30 days could still prevent the cycle from becoming longer by that measure.

Q: How long did previous Bitcoin cycles last when measured from the bottom?

The first cycle took a little over 200 days, the next took over 700 days, and another lasted about 1,100 days. This pattern supports the speaker’s view that the current cycle still has room to continue.

Q: Why did the speaker expect a three-to-six-month summer lull?

The speaker believed Bitcoin was too far ahead of schedule and needed to decline or pause for three to six months before continuing higher. He says that lull more or less occurred, followed by the market carrying on upward later.

Q: Does the speaker expect Bitcoin’s cycle to extend into 2022?

Yes, the speaker explicitly says he believes the cycle will extend into 2022. He also rejects September and October market-cycle-top predictions and believes the market has plenty of room to run even if a correction occurs.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is on the cusp of lengthening its market cycle as measured from the halving; all it needs is a new all-time high beyond today. Today marks the last day the previous cycle ran from the halving, so exceeding the prior peak now confirms a longer cycle than before.

• The speaker warned earlier in the year that the market was too far ahead of schedule and needed a three-to-six-month summer lull, which occurred. He rejects calls for a September or October top and dismisses predictions of a drop back to $10,000 or below as a pipe dream.

• This cycle is not keeping pace with the prior one: it is up about 20x from the bottom versus 40x at the equivalent point last cycle. Diminishing returns are expected, and reaching roughly $310,000 this cycle is viewed as highly unlikely, though prices should trend higher over time.