Bitcoin Market Cycle: Are We Near the 2025 Top?

TL;DR

Bitcoin has topped in Q4 of every post-halving year (2013, 2017, 2021), suggesting a potential top in Q4 2025 and a bear market in 2026. However, several classic peak indicators have not triggered: the terminal price of 281K remains untagged and the MVRV Z-score sits below the 6 spike seen before every prior top.

Transcript

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the market cycles. Where in the cycle are we? If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into th... Read More

Key Insights

• Bitcoin operates under a four-year cycle where major market cycle tops have historically occurred in the fourth quarter of every post-halving year: Q4 2013, Q4 2017, Q4 2021, and potentially Q4 2025 though that is not yet proven.
• The four-year cycle exists independently of Bitcoin's halving, since the S&P 500 shows major market lows roughly every four years going back to the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, well before Bitcoin was created.
• Macro market lows tend to occur in the midterm year, with S&P examples including October 1966, May 1970, October 1974, and August 1982, implying Bitcoin could see a bear market and macro low in 2026.
• The current cycle only feels further along than usual because the 2022 low arrived earlier than the January 2015 low of the prior cycle, so measured from the bottom this cycle has run roughly the same length as before.
• The terminal price indicator sits at 281K and has not been tagged or even approached, making it unlikely Bitcoin reaches roughly 300K by year-end whether or not the top is already in.
• The MVRV Z-score remains pretty low, whereas all prior cycles spiked above six before the top was in, meaning this signal has either not yet fired or will not happen this cycle.
• Measured from the halving, this cycle is at day 544, just short of the prior cycle which topped after 546 days, showing Bitcoin is far along but has not yet exceeded last cycle's duration.
• One alternative scenario mirrors the 2019 quantitative tightening move, where a low top faded before QE and zero rates drove a later rally, suggesting 2026 could be a slow decline followed by renewed upside once money printing resumes.

Questions & Answers

Q: Where are we in the Bitcoin market cycle?

Bitcoin is getting far along in its cycle but whether the top is in remains to be seen. Measured from the halving, the cycle is at day 544, just short of last cycle's 546 days. The four-year cycle pattern points to a potential top in Q4 2025 followed by a possible bear market and macro low in 2026, though this is not yet proven and a final rally could still occur.

Q: How does the Bitcoin four-year cycle work?

Bitcoin operates under a four-year cycle where major market cycle tops have historically occurred in the fourth quarter of every post-halving year. This held for Q4 2013, Q4 2017, and Q4 2021, with Q4 2025 as the potential but unproven next top. The reasoning is that if it is not broke, do not fix it, since the cycle has operated under this assumption for a long time. It is presented as how it has been, not a prediction of what is wanted.

Q: Is the four-year cycle caused by the Bitcoin halving?

No. The four-year cycle is not truly based on the halving, because evidence of four-year cycles exists well before Bitcoin was created. The S&P 500 shows major market lows approximately every four years going back to the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, with examples in 1958, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, and 1982. Bitcoin simply had a convenient halving every four years, making it feel like Bitcoin has a monopoly on the cycle when markets respected it long before.

Q: When do major market lows tend to occur?

Macro market lows, whether higher lows or lower lows, tend to occur in the midterm year. S&P 500 examples include October 1966, May 1970, October 1974, February and August 1982, and June 1960 with a slightly higher low in October. Recent Bitcoin lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022 also fit roughly every four years. This pattern suggests Bitcoin should expect a macro low sometime in 2026, the next midterm year.

Q: Why does this cycle feel further along than previous cycles?

It feels further along despite it only being October because in some prior cycles the actual low came later. In the 2013 cycle, the low was in January 2015, two months later than this cycle's November 2022 low. So when measured from the bottom, the current cycle has actually gone on just as long as before. That timing difference makes the cycle appear more spent than it really is when compared calendar-wise.

Q: What peak indicators have not yet triggered this cycle?

Several top indicators developed back in 2018 and 2019 have not gone off. The terminal price sits at 281K and has not been tagged or even approached. The MVRV Z-score remains pretty low, whereas all prior cycles spiked above six before the top was in. Because these signals have not fired, it is either not going to happen this cycle or the top is still ahead, leaving the outcome genuinely uncertain.

Q: Could Bitcoin still rally into December before topping?

Possibly. Comparing the cycle to the 2017 baseline leaves room for a final dip before a rally into the market cycle top, while comparing to cycle three suggests the bear market is already due. The problem is this last move cannot be known until it is already behind us. If the price sits the same in December, that would be a tough pill to swallow, because a bear market without a blowoff top could be brutal.

Q: What alternative scenario could make 2026 less severe?

One scenario mirrors the 2019 move during quantitative tightening, which topped low, faded, then rallied strongly after QE began and rates dropped to zero. Under this view, the entire QT bull market resembles that period. 2026 could bring a slow steady decline and a midterm-year scare, after which money printers restart, rates are lowered, and Jerome Powell is replaced, triggering another rally. This would make the bear market milder than many expect.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle with market tops in Q4 of post-halving years, specifically Q4 2013, Q4 2017, and Q4 2021, with Q4 2025 as the potential but unproven next top. The prudent baseline is to expect this pattern may repeat rather than assuming this time is different.

• The four-year cycle predates Bitcoin, appearing in the S&P 500 from the 1950s onward with lows roughly every four years, often in the midterm year. This implies Bitcoin should expect a bear market in 2026 with a macro low next year, meaning the cycle top likely forms this year.

• Several classic peak indicators have not triggered, including the untagged 281K terminal price and a low MVRV Z-score that has not spiked above six as in prior tops. Measured from the halving, the cycle is at day 544 versus 546 last cycle, so a final rally into December remains possible but uncertain.