The FED Is Lying To You

TL;DR

Powell may be making another policy mistake or lying as inflation persists and the job market worsens.

Transcript

Jerome Powell is either making his second major policy mistake in a row or he's just telling boldface lies right to the Market's face what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there time for another macro update haven't done one of these in a couple of months if you've been following the channel I will have a link down below ... Read More

Key Insights

• 🛄 Powell's credibility is being questioned due to his previous transitory inflation claim and current statements on inflation battle.
• 🐢 The job market is deteriorating, with slow full-time hirings and revised lower job data.
• 🤨 The Fed's reliance on unreliable and outdated data raises concerns about accurate policy decisions.
• 🧑‍🏭 Factors like de-globalization and the need to pay workers more challenge the feasibility of the two percent inflation target.
• 👪 The real estate market is showing signs of pressure, with declining home sales and rents.
• 🍉 Short-term market volatility should not overshadow long-term investment strategies.
• 🛟 Individuals nearing retirement should be more cautious in preserving their wealth, while younger investors have opportunities to acquire assets.
• ☠️ The Fed may hit the pause button on interest rate hikes and may eventually lower rates.

Questions & Answers

Q: What is the main concern regarding Jerome Powell's statements on inflation?

The concern is that Powell's previous claim of transitory inflation and current statements about inflation battle not being won may be misleading or false, calling into question the reliability of his statements.

Q: How is the job market being affected?

The job market is deteriorating, with full-time hirings slowing down significantly below their trend. Additionally, job data has been revised lower, casting doubt on the accuracy of the data being used for policy decisions.

Q: What impact does the unreliable data have on the Federal Reserve's decision-making?

The unreliable data, such as the skewed job data revisions and low response rate for the JOLTS report, may lead the Federal Reserve to make misguided policy decisions based on flawed or outdated information.

Q: Why is the Fed's two percent inflation target no longer credible?

Factors like de-globalization, the transition to alternative energy, the need to pay workers more, and shorter supply chains are all inflationary and may hinder the Fed's goal of driving inflation down to two percent. Economist Bill Ackman argues that the target should be reevaluated.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Jerome Powell's previous claim of transitory inflation has proven false, raising questions about the reliability of his current statements.

• The job market is deteriorating, with full-time hirings slowing down and job data being revised significantly lower.

• Inflation may have peaked, but the Fed's two percent inflation target is no longer credible and may hinder economic growth.