Is Bitcoin Dominance Rising? The Rotation Back to BTC

TL;DR

Bitcoin dominance has already begun rotating higher after bottoming in September, climbing from 57% the week of September 8th to 59% by the week of October 6th. This mirrors 2020 and 2017 almost exactly, when October dominance ran to 64%. Liquidity is flowing back to Bitcoin even though it does not feel obvious yet.

Transcript

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance and we're going to just continue to discuss how that rotation back to Bitcoin is already underway. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the ... Read More

Key Insights

• Bitcoin dominance found its low in September and has been building higher, rising from 57% the week of September 8th to 59% the week of October 6th, confirming the rotation back to Bitcoin is already underway.
• The 2025 setup mirrors 2020 almost exactly: the week of October 5, 2020 opened at 59.35% and the week of October 6, 2025 opened at 59.31%, essentially the same level five years apart.
• October is historically the best month for Bitcoin dominance. It opened October 2020 at 59.12% and ended at 64%, and in 2017 it ran from 54% to 64%, so plenty of room remains for it to head higher.
• The 2020 price structure repeated in 2025: a capitulation low, then up-sideways, two weeks up, two weeks down, and a breakout in October, the same rhythm playing out this year.
• Altcoins reliably bleed against Bitcoin over time. In 2017 alt/Bitcoin pairs dropped from 0.04 to 0.025, bounced, then fell again to 0.027, showing there is always time for alts to drop against the king.
• Spending the whole cycle chasing alt season is costly. Buying altcoins for four years instead of Bitcoin can leave you needing an alt season just to break even against Bitcoin in Satoshi terms, so timing matters.
• Liquidity must flow to Bitcoin for the bull market to continue. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB do not lead the bull market, and if Bitcoin ever stops leading, the cycle is in its final innings.
• Every alt season call this cycle produced only lower highs. Narratives shifted from the 2022 Ethereum merge, to the 2024 Solana move, to the late-2024 memecoin supercycle, to recent Ethereum and BNB, but none delivered a true alt season.

Questions & Answers

Q: Is Bitcoin dominance actually going up right now?

Yes. Bitcoin dominance found a low in September and has been moving higher. About a month ago, the week of September 8th, dominance was at 57%, and now the week of October 6th it sits at 59%. The rotation of liquidity from altcoins back to Bitcoin is happening, it just is not obvious to people yet because the move has been gradual rather than dramatic.

Q: How does 2025 Bitcoin dominance compare to 2020?

The levels are nearly identical. The week of October 5, 2020 Bitcoin dominance opened at 59.35%, and the week of October 6, 2025 it opened at 59.31%, essentially the exact same level five years apart. In 2020 dominance found its low in the same time frame, slowly moved up while people still called for alt season, then shot from 60% to 62% in a single week by mid-October.

Q: Why is October important for Bitcoin dominance?

October is historically the best month for Bitcoin dominance based on monthly returns, and the month has only just begun, so there is plenty of time for dominance to head a lot higher. Dominance opened October 2020 at 59.12% and October 2025 at 59.03%, both near 59%. In 2020 October ended at 64%, and in 2017 dominance ran from 54% to 64% over the month.

Q: Why do altcoins tend to lose value against Bitcoin?

Bleeding against Bitcoin is what altcoins do best over time, and there is always time for that drop to happen. Looking at alt/Bitcoin pairs in 2017, they fell from 0.04 to 0.025, then bounced and dropped again to 0.027 in early December. In 2020, alt/Bitcoin pairs dropped sharply into early November, bounced, then dropped again into December, showing repeated declines against Bitcoin.

Q: What is the risk of constantly chasing alt season?

If you spend the entire cycle calling for alt season and buy altcoins for four years instead of Bitcoin, in Satoshi valuation terms you now require an alt season just to break even against Bitcoin. That is why timing matters with alts. Bitcoin rose roughly 7x to 8x from the low, and many people underperformed it by chasing altcoins that changed from year to year.

Q: Does Bitcoin need to lead for the bull market to continue?

Yes. For the bull market to continue, liquidity must flow to the king, Bitcoin. Ethereum does not lead the bull market, Solana does not lead it, and BNB does not lead it. Bitcoin leads the bull market, and if Bitcoin ever stops leading, then the cycle is in its final innings. Usually by the time a real alt season arrives, the cycle is essentially over.

Q: Why have all the alt season calls this cycle failed?

Every alt season call this cycle produced only lower highs, each with its own narrative. In 2022 it was the Ethereum merge, in early 2024 it was the Solana move, in late 2024 it was the memecoin supercycle, and more recently it was Ethereum and BNB. Total2 divided by Bitcoin shows repeated call points in August 2022, January 2024, December 2024, and September 2025, all lower highs rather than a true alt season.

Q: What level is key for Bitcoin dominance in this analysis?

57% was always a level discussed as a potential downside target for Bitcoin dominance, because that is exactly where it went on the trend line over the last couple of years, and it did reach that level. Now some who called for a dominance crash expect a rejection near 60%, but the speaker raises the possibility that dominance simply powers back through 60% instead of getting rejected, a scenario few are considering.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin dominance bottomed in September and has climbed from 57% the week of September 8th to 59% the week of October 6th. The rotation of liquidity from altcoins back to Bitcoin is already happening, even though it does not feel obvious to people who expected a faster or more dramatic move.

• The current setup closely tracks 2020 and 2017. Dominance opened October 2025 at 59.03% versus 59.12% in October 2020, and both prior years saw dominance run to 64% by month end. The price rhythm of capitulation, up-sideways, two weeks up, two weeks down, and an October breakout also repeated.

• Altcoins consistently bleed against Bitcoin, so chasing repeated alt-season calls over four years underperforms simply holding Bitcoin, which rose 7x to 8x from the low. Liquidity must flow to Bitcoin for the bull market to continue, and a real alt season usually signals the cycle is nearly over.