How to Trade AMD, Tesla, IREN, and BMNR Breakouts

TL;DR

AMD offers a closely defined breakout setup because its multimonth bull flag and smaller ascending triangle place a potential stop near the entry. Tesla’s key downside level is $400, while the presenter targets $488 and expects a temporary post-delivery selloff. IREN, BMNR, MicroStrategy, CoreWeave, and JD are additional momentum or breakout candidates tied to AI, cryptocurrency, or improving technical structures.

Transcript

What is going on traders? Let's get you ready for the upcoming week in the stock market. Last week, I gave you my favorite trade setups and investment thesis. And this week, I don't plan to do anything different. I'm going to do the same. So, I gave you guys BMR up 12% since the the video I reported. Iron up 20%, core up 12%, and I told you guys th... Read More

Key Insights

• AMD is positioned in a large multimonth bull flag with a smaller ascending triangle inside it. The presenter considers the nearby breakout area a major level and likes the setup because a failed trade could use a stop placed relatively close to the entry.
• Tesla’s $400 level is the presenter’s primary danger point because it represents the midpoint of the recent upward range, contains a price gap, and acts as a psychological level. He views the delivery-related selloff as temporary and expects Tesla eventually to retest $488.
• IREN is presented as a momentum trade rather than a long-term investment. Its appeal comes from two themes, Bitcoin and AI, because the company is using infrastructure accumulated for Bitcoin mining to provide AI infrastructure to customers.
• BMNR is tied to Ethereum momentum and previously completed an offering priced at $70 per share. The presenter has a modest short-term target of $64 and believes the stock could exceed $72 by year-end if Ethereum continues advancing toward his $5,000 target.
• MicroStrategy has broken above a multimonth trend line after the presenter flagged the setup on September 29. He believes a strong October for cryptocurrency could help the stock move toward $400 again, making the position dependent on continued crypto-market strength.
• CoreWeave and Nebius are both considered long-term AI infrastructure opportunities, but the presenter prefers CoreWeave’s current trading setup. He cites roughly $30 billion of backlog for CoreWeave and around $28 billion for Nebius, while noting Nebius has the lower stated market capitalization.
• Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries reached almost 500,000 vehicles and exceeded estimates, but the stock sold off afterward. The presenter attributes much of the preceding run-up to orders placed before expiration of the $7,500 federal EV credit, which created conditions for selling after the news.
• The market outlook is cautiously bullish because the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones reached new all-time highs in October. The presenter says fourth-quarter returns were positive more than 90% of the time after such highs and expects two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts that year.

Questions & Answers

Q: How can traders approach the AMD breakout setup?

AMD is forming a large multimonth bull flag while also showing a smaller ascending triangle. The presenter expects a breakout near a major area where substantial share volume has historically traded. He considers the setup relatively low risk because the invalidation point is close to the potential entry. Traders should define and use a stop, since the thesis depends on AMD successfully clearing the identified resistance area.

Q: What price levels matter most for Tesla stock?

The presenter identifies $400 as Tesla’s main downside danger level because it is the midpoint of the recent upward range, includes a price gap, and represents a psychological threshold. Above the current area, he sees notable gamma around $460 and $500. His principal upside reference is $488, the all-time high, which he expects Tesla to break above by year-end.

Q: Why did Tesla sell off after beating delivery estimates?

Tesla delivered almost 500,000 vehicles during the third quarter and exceeded estimates, but the stock experienced a sell-the-news reaction. The presenter says part of the earlier rally reflected customers ordering vehicles before the $7,500 federal EV credit expired. That demand pull-forward created elevated expectations before the report, allowing traders to sell after the strong delivery result became official.

Q: Why is IREN considered an AI and Bitcoin momentum trade?

IREN is described as benefiting from two market themes rather than a traditional long-term investment thesis. The company accumulated infrastructure for Bitcoin mining and is now renting that equipment as AI infrastructure to customers. The presenter also highlights 20,000 October 17 calls at the $52 strike, representing about $7 million, purchased shortly before Friday’s close as evidence of strong speculative interest.

Q: What is the investment thesis for BMNR and Ethereum?

BMNR previously completed an offering priced at $70 per share, which contributed to its decline and created what the presenter considered a cheaper entry. He expects BMNR to benefit if Ethereum continues rising toward his $5,000 year-end target. His BMNR targets are $64 in the short term and above $72 by year-end, although he prefers owning Ethereum itself for long-term exposure.

Q: Why does the presenter prefer CoreWeave over Nebius?

The presenter believes both CoreWeave and Nebius can benefit from demand for bare-metal servers within AI infrastructure. Nebius appears cheaper by one comparison, with around $28 billion in backlog and a market capitalization near $32 billion, versus CoreWeave’s roughly $30 billion backlog and market capitalization above $60 billion. Even so, he selects CoreWeave because he considers its current technical trade setup stronger.

Q: What could drive MicroStrategy toward $400?

MicroStrategy broke above a multimonth trend line after the presenter warned viewers to watch for the breakout on September 29. The trade depends heavily on cryptocurrency momentum. He argues that if cryptocurrency performs strongly during October, MicroStrategy could continue its advance and approach the $400 level again. The setup is therefore framed as a breakout supported by a favorable crypto-market environment.

Q: How does the government shutdown affect this market outlook?

The partial government shutdown postponed the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls data. Unemployment claims were scheduled for Thursday, while nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate were listed for Friday, but the presenter treats those releases as tentative until funding reopens the government. He does not view shutdowns as consequential for stocks and notes that the S&P 500 rose 10% during the previous shutdown.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The broad market entered October with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones at new all-time highs. The presenter argues that fourth-quarter returns have historically been positive more than 90% of the time following October highs, while two expected Federal Reserve rate cuts support a bullish outlook despite the partial government shutdown.

• Tesla delivered almost 500,000 vehicles in the third quarter and beat estimates, but experienced a sell-the-news reaction after demand was pulled forward by the expiring $7,500 federal EV credit. The presenter identifies $400 as the critical support area, sees upside gamma near $460 and $500, and targets the $488 all-time high.

• The featured setups combine technical breakouts with AI and cryptocurrency themes. AMD has a multimonth bull flag and ascending triangle, IREN has unusual call activity and exposure to AI infrastructure and Bitcoin, BMNR tracks Ethereum momentum, MicroStrategy targets $400, CoreWeave bounced from trend support, and JD is forming higher highs and higher lows.