a16z Podcast | What Comes After the Smartphone

TL;DR

What comes after the smartphone is not necessarily a device 10 times its size, but an explosion of services and ecosystems built on the now-stable mobile platform. Benedict Evans and Steven Sinofsky argue that innovation is moving up the stack into areas such as banking, entertainment, productivity, and integrated services, while devices keep gaining sensors, battery life, and capabilities. Read on to understand why a mature smartphone platform may be the beginning, not the end, of innovation.

Transcript

welcome to the a 16z podcast I'm Michael Copeland technology is a progression of new ideas and new platforms gobbling up the one that came before and the world of computers we went from mainframes to many computers to pcs and then came the mobile phone which in the form of the smartphone has dwarfed them all but what does that to mobile when you ha... Read More

Key Insights

• 😥 The current smartphone market is at a saturation point, with little new innovation in recent flagship devices.
• 🍿 The PC market, specifically devices like the iPad Pro and Microsoft Surface, is driving innovation and change in technology.
• 👶 The future of technology will likely involve building ecosystems on top of existing platforms, such as IoT, to create new value and drive growth.
• 🖐️ The smartphone ecosystem, currently dominated by Apple and Google, will continue to play a significant role in future innovations.
• 👶 The scale and size of the smartphone market make it an attractive platform for new services and software development.
• 📱 The integration of smartphone components into IoT devices will further expand the smartphone ecosystem.
• 🏛️ The stability of the Android and iOS platforms enables startups to build innovative solutions on top of them.

Questions & Answers

Q: What comes after the smartphone?

The speakers do not identify a single successor device. They argue that the next major wave is innovation built on top of the smartphone platform, including new services in banking, entertainment, productivity, and other areas.

Q: Has smartphone innovation reached its end?

No. Although new flagship phones can resemble the previous year’s models, the speakers say innovation has moved up the stack. The underlying mobile platform is becoming predictable and stable, enabling an explosion of new products and services above it.

Q: Why do recent flagship smartphones seem less innovative?

Apple, Google, and major messaging services have established substantial centers of gravity, so the foundational platform battles have largely settled. Phones will still gain capabilities, sensors, battery life, and improved designs, but the most visible innovation may increasingly occur in services rather than hardware.

Q: Why are the iPad Pro, Microsoft Surface, and Chromebook discussed?

These products make the PC market appear active and innovative because they introduce changing approaches to familiar computing devices. The speakers contrast that excitement with seemingly incremental smartphone releases, while questioning whether PC refinement actually signals that the platform is nearing its end.

Q: Why might a technology look best just before becoming obsolete?

Benedict Evans argues that technologies often become most refined near the end of their era. He points to sailing ships at the end of the 19th century, battleships built in 1945, and spy planes perfected before satellites as examples of that pattern.

Q: Are Apple and Google finished innovating in mobile?

No. Their platforms have become more predictable, but Apple and Google continue building services deeply into smartphones. Mobile innovation therefore occurs not only in browsers and apps, but also through integrated platform services.

Q: What does it mean that smartphone innovation is moving up the stack?

It means the mobile platform’s underpinnings are solidifying while developers focus on applications and services built upon them. Instead of another platform war, the speakers expect constellations of innovation in unsettled fields such as banking, entertainment, and productivity.

Q: How is the smartphone platform different from the PC web platform?

On Windows or Mac, the web browser often served as the main platform for building internet services. On smartphones, services can be built in browsers and apps while Apple and Google also integrate capabilities directly into the operating platform.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The smartphone market has reached saturation, with little new innovation in recent flagships from Apple and Samsung, signaling the end of a wave of smartphone development.

• On the other hand, devices like the iPad Pro and Microsoft Surface are driving innovation in the PC world, suggesting a new wave of technological advancements.

• The next generation of technology will likely focus on building ecosystems on top of existing platforms, such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and integrating devices into the smartphone ecosystem.