Will PLTR, SOFI, TSLA, NVDA, ACHR, HIMS, SPY, and QQQ Keep Rallying This Week?

TL;DR

Tech stocks could keep rallying, but the move needs confirmation: the fear index should continue toward 20, the S&P must break roughly 573, and the NASDAQ must clear resistance near 491. Microsoft and Tesla showed improving technical strength, while Apple, Google, Meta, AMD, and semiconductors still faced warning signs. Read on for the key levels and signals to watch across the market.

Transcript

If you're worried whether your favorite tech stocks are going to keep rallying this coming week or if this is the end of the party, this is the right video for you. We're going to run through the fear index, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, the S&P, and the NASDAQ. Actually, we might do this at the top, Palanteer, PayPal, SoFi... Read More

Key Insights

• The fear index is most favorable for investors when it declines, and its latest close was the lowest since April 2. A continued move toward 20 would support the rally, while a renewed rise would provide a reason for greater caution.
• The S&P remained below its 200-day moving average and needed to break through roughly 573 to sustain the rally. Friday produced neither a meaningful new high nor substantial progress, leaving the index without the technical confirmation the presenter wanted.
• The NASDAQ faced firm resistance near 491 after touching its 200-day moving average multiple times and selling off each time. Failure to break through that level on Monday was presented as a signal that the probability of a move lower would become very high.
• Microsoft was technically healthy after strong earnings produced a gap higher and placed the stock above all moving averages discussed. The next important test was resistance near the recent high of 450, while declining volume during the rally remained a concern worth monitoring.
• Apple was technically weak because it traded significantly below all referenced moving averages and remained beneath its downtrend. Its attempted breakouts were followed by additional gaps lower, and the subsequent recovery attracted little volume, indicating limited participation from buyers.
• Semiconductor stocks had recovered about 34% from their lows but remained roughly 24% below their recent highs. The presenter viewed the group as too early because overhead selling and weak breakout confirmation still limited the case for buying, including in AMD.
• Amazon had improved by moving back above its 50-day moving average and establishing a modest upward path. It had cleared many April highs, but resistance around 200 remained the decisive hurdle, and low trading volume suggested limited enthusiasm behind the recovery.
• Meta repeatedly failed at its 150-day moving average, hitting resistance on five of the previous six trading days. That pattern suggested sideways or downward movement, while Tesla showed improvement by rising 4.7% on Friday and moving above its 200-day moving average.

Questions & Answers

Q: Will tech stocks keep rallying this coming week?

The rally could continue, but the presenter wanted stronger technical confirmation. The fear index needed to keep falling toward 20, while the S&P and NASDAQ needed to break resistance near 573 and 491, respectively. Failure by the NASDAQ to clear its level was presented as making a move lower very likely.

Q: What market signals would confirm that the tech rally is continuing?

Confirmation would come from a falling fear index, decisive index breakouts, new highs, and stronger trading volume. The S&P needed to clear roughly 573, while the NASDAQ needed to overcome resistance near 491 after repeated failures at its 200-day moving average.

Q: Why does the fear index matter for this market outlook?

The presenter considers lower fear-index readings more favorable for investors. Its latest close was the lowest since April 2, and a continued move toward 20 would support the rally. A renewed rise would be a reason for greater caution.

Q: Why was the NASDAQ rally considered vulnerable?

The NASDAQ tested its 200-day moving average several times and sold off after each attempt. That created firm resistance near 491 and suggested limited enthusiasm among major Wall Street buyers. The presenter wanted to see a breakout on Monday.

Q: Is Microsoft technically positioned for further gains?

Microsoft showed a healthy setup after strong earnings produced a gap higher and moved the stock above all the moving averages discussed. Its next major test was the recent high near 450. Declining volume during the rally remained a concern to monitor.

Q: Why was Apple considered a weak stock setup?

Apple remained significantly below the referenced moving averages and beneath its downtrend. Its attempted breakouts were followed by further gaps lower, while the recovery attracted little trading volume. The presenter therefore did not view it as a confirmed recovery.

Q: Should AMD or semiconductor stocks be bought after their rebound?

The presenter considered the opportunity premature under his rules. The semiconductor group had recovered about 34% from its lows but remained roughly 24% below its recent highs, leaving substantial overhead selling. AMD’s move was characterized as a recovery rally rather than a confirmed breakout.

Q: What investing rule guided the stock assessments?

The central rule was to buy stocks that are already moving upward instead of buying merely because they have fallen. The analysis used moving averages, resistance, volume, breakouts, and price direction to judge whether buyers had returned. Under that framework, technical confirmation mattered more than an apparently discounted price.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Market direction depends heavily on volatility and index resistance. The fear index reached its lowest close since April 2 and was moving toward 20, which the presenter views positively. However, the S&P remained below its 200-day moving average near 573, while the NASDAQ repeatedly failed around 491.

• Microsoft showed one of the healthier large-cap setups after strong earnings, a gap higher, and movement above all discussed moving averages. Amazon also improved by recovering above its 50-day moving average, but still faced resistance at 200. Apple and Google remained technically weak, with poor recoveries and limited buying enthusiasm.

• The presenter’s method favors buying assets that are already rising instead of purchasing them merely because they have fallen. Under those rules, AMD and the semiconductor group remained premature opportunities, while Meta repeatedly failed at its 150-day moving average. Tesla improved by moving above the technically important 200-day moving average.