Ethereum: Dubious Speculation, Why Is It at Risk in a Bitcoin Bear Market?

TL;DR

Ethereum is at risk because the analysis places it inside a Bitcoin bear market that began in October, with both assets rejected near their 21-week EMAs. Ethereum reached a new all-time high after its ETH/Bitcoin valuation fell near 0.02 in April 2025, but its failure to follow Bitcoin higher in October suggests weakening momentum. Read on to understand the historical comparison, relative valuation, and key technical levels.

Transcript

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Key Insights

• Ethereum is exposed to market-wide risk because the analysis considers Bitcoin to have been in a bear market since October. The stated cycle lengths suggest that Bitcoin’s broader cycle is spent, even though its current decline has been milder than declines at comparable points in previous cycles.
• Bitcoin’s current market structure is compared with 2019 because both periods featured apathetic rather than euphoric tops. The proposed pattern involves slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, which could continue placing downward pressure on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.
• Ethereum and Bitcoin were both rejected near their respective 21-week EMAs. The analysis argues that a successful Bitcoin breakout above this level could have helped Ethereum build on the ETH/Bitcoin low formed around April 2025, but that supporting condition did not occur.
• Ethereum’s April 2025 valuation near 0.02 Bitcoin offered a more attractive relative entry than its roughly 0.08 Bitcoin valuation during summer 2022. The argument prioritizes opportunity cost against Bitcoin rather than evaluating Ethereum solely through its lower 2022 United States dollar price.
• Ethereum lost approximately 75% against Bitcoin between its elevated 2022 relative valuation and its 2025 low. This decline supports the claim that buying Ethereum earlier was less attractive for an investor measuring portfolio performance in Bitcoin instead of a currency described as losing value over time.
• Ethereum reached a new all-time high only after its ETH/Bitcoin valuation went home in April 2025. The strategy presented was to hold Bitcoin while Ethereum weakened against it, buy Ethereum near the relative low, and skim profits when Ethereum subsequently exceeded its previous dollar-denominated high.
• Ethereum’s failure to follow Bitcoin to another high in October is treated as evidence of weakening relative momentum. It now appears caught between avoiding its regression band and failing to reclaim the bull market support band, producing a market structure characterized by apathy and limited buying demand.
• Individual altcoin rallies do not establish a broad altcoin season because Bitcoin dominance can continue rising while selected assets outperform temporarily. Monero reached a new all-time high, yet its Bitcoin valuation remained approximately 85% below its 2017 peak, illustrating the distinction between dollar gains and Bitcoin-relative performance.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why is Ethereum at risk in a Bitcoin bear market?

The analysis considers Bitcoin to have been in a bear market since October, creating market-wide risk for Ethereum and every other cryptocurrency. Bitcoin and Ethereum were both rejected near their 21-week EMAs, and continued lower Bitcoin highs and lows could make it harder for Ethereum to recover its bull market support band.

Q: Why is the current Bitcoin market compared with 2019?

Both periods are characterized as having apathetic rather than euphoric Bitcoin tops. Under this comparison, Bitcoin could form slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs for a while, continuing to pressure Ethereum.

Q: Why was Ethereum considered more attractive in April 2025 than in 2022?

Ethereum traded near 0.02 Bitcoin in April 2025, compared with roughly 0.08 Bitcoin in summer 2022. Although its dollar price was lower in 2022, the analysis prioritizes opportunity cost and Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin rather than its dollar price alone.

Q: What does it mean that Ethereum “went home”?

“Going home” refers to the ETH/Bitcoin valuation falling into a deeply reduced range around 0.017 to 0.03 in April 2025. The analyst bought Ethereum near 0.02 Bitcoin at that point, after which Ethereum eventually reached a new dollar-denominated all-time high.

Q: What does the 21-week EMA indicate for Ethereum and Bitcoin?

The 21-week EMA acted as resistance for both assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum each rejected near that level. A Bitcoin breakout could have helped Ethereum build on the ETH/Bitcoin low formed in April 2025, but that supporting condition did not occur.

Q: Why did Ethereum’s October performance weaken the bullish case?

Ethereum topped in August and failed to follow Bitcoin when Bitcoin moved to another high in October. That nonconfirmation is treated as evidence that Ethereum lacked enough momentum to extend its advance before Bitcoin entered the presumed bear market.

Q: How much did Ethereum lose against Bitcoin between 2022 and 2025?

Ethereum declined about 75% against Bitcoin by 2025 from its elevated relative valuation in 2022. The analysis uses that loss to show why a lower dollar purchase price did not necessarily make Ethereum the better investment during that period.

Q: Do individual altcoin rallies prove that an altcoin season has begun?

No, selected assets can rally while Bitcoin dominance continues rising. Monero reached a new dollar-denominated all-time high, yet its Bitcoin valuation remained approximately 85% below its 2017 peak, illustrating the difference between dollar gains and Bitcoin-relative performance.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Ethereum reached approximately $2,800 after a difficult cycle in which its performance depended heavily on Bitcoin. The analysis argues that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since October, creating broad market risk for Ethereum. Both assets were rejected near their 21-week EMAs, limiting Ethereum’s ability to regain stronger momentum.

• The preferred Ethereum entry came in April 2025, when its Bitcoin valuation was roughly 0.02, rather than during 2022 when it traded near 0.08 Bitcoin. Although the earlier dollar price was lower, Ethereum subsequently lost about 75% against Bitcoin, demonstrating why opportunity cost and Bitcoin-denominated performance shaped the decision.

• Ethereum eventually reached a new all-time high after its ETH/Bitcoin valuation went home, but it topped in August and failed to follow Bitcoin’s October high. The proposed historical comparison is Ethereum after its June 2019 peak, when it struggled below the bull market support band and gradually moved toward the regression band.