The latest INSANE Trump plan! Biden doing better than polls show? | Ballot Box with Bill & Tim

TL;DR

Trump’s polling lead may reflect voters venting frustration with Biden rather than a settled preference, leaving Biden an opportunity to recover. Tim Miller and Bill Crystal argue that Biden still has a year and ample funding to address concerns about his age, turnout among young and Black voters, and the contrast with Trump. Read on for their analysis of Trump-aligned threats, the Arizona Senate race, and the bull case for Biden.

Transcript

hey there welcome to Ballot Box with Tim Miller and Bill Crystal of the bull workk um we are taping this episode it's going to be live on Tuesdays here on YouTube but it is a holiday week I'm going to an undisclosed Beach location and Bill it is undisclosed because of this I don't know if you saw this um I'm surprising you with this there was a lit... Read More

Key Insights

• 🤨 Threats and extreme rhetoric have become normalized, raising concerns about the political environment.
• 🥺 The potential impact of an independent candidate in the Arizona Senate race complicates the dynamics and could lead to unexpected outcomes.
• 🤕 Biden's age remains a concern, but his campaign has time and resources to address this issue and make a compelling case to voters.

Questions & Answers

Q: Is Biden doing better than the polls show?

The bull case is that Trump’s polling lead reflects frustration with Biden rather than a strong, settled preference for Trump. Once voters face a direct choice between the two candidates, the result may differ from these early poll numbers.

Q: Can Biden overcome concerns about his age?

Miller and Crystal argue that Biden still has a year and ample funding to address the issue. His campaign can highlight his accomplishments, note that Trump is also older, and draw a clearer contrast with Trump’s presidency.

Q: What other electoral problems does Biden need to address?

Beyond age, the discussion identifies turnout among young and Black voters as a concern. The bull case depends on Biden rallying his base while presenting voters with a clear choice between him and Trump.

Q: Why are threats from Trump allies considered dangerous even when they sound absurd?

The speakers describe the threats as ridiculous and childish but warn that extreme rhetoric can become dangerous after it is normalized. They argue that moving the Overton window makes previously unthinkable actions seem less extreme and more open to serious debate.

Q: Who might face the greatest risk from normalized deportation and detention rhetoric?

Tim Miller says he is not primarily worried for himself despite being named in a threatening post. He expresses greater concern for green-card holders and undocumented people because discussions of deportation and sprawling camps seem more realistic for them.

Q: Why does the prospect of pardoning January 6 prisoners concern the hosts?

They fear that freeing or pardoning January 6 prisoners could create a permission structure for future misconduct. People might believe they can act with impunity if Trump wins again and expect to receive pardons.

Q: How could Kristen Cinema’s independent candidacy affect the Arizona Senate race?

Early polling discussed in the episode suggests that Cinema could hurt Republican nominee Carrie Lake by attracting center-right voters who want an alternative. Those voters might otherwise support Lake if the race became a binary choice.

Q: Why is the NRSC emphasizing Kristen Cinema’s liberal record?

The NRSC had begun an advertising campaign promoting Cinema’s liberal credentials to improve her standing with Democratic voters. The apparent goal was to make her draw as much support from Ruben GGO as she was drawing from Carrie Lake, though the hosts questioned whether she would ultimately run as an independent.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Tim Miller and Bill Crystal discuss threats made against them and the alarming trend of normalizing extreme rhetoric.

• Analysis of the Arizona Senate race reveals concerns over the potential impact of an independent candidate on the Republican nominee Carrie Lake.

• A poll shows a significant lead for Trump over potential GOP primary candidates, including Nikki Haley, but there is still a year and ample funding to address Biden's age issue.

• The bull case for Biden suggests that Trump's lead reflects frustration with the current state of affairs and the choice between the two candidates may yield different results.