The Early Days of AI and How to Create Luck in the Tech Industry

The Early Days of AI and How to Create Luck in the Tech Industry

Introduction:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has come a long way, but it is important to recognize that the current advancements, such as LLMs, Transformers, and diffusion models, mark a new era and discontinuity from the past. In the early days of AI, value was mostly captured by incumbents, as the capabilities were not advanced enough to create new market openings. However, with the recent launch of ChatGPT and the mainstreaming of AI, we are entering a new phase of technological possibilities. This article explores the different waves of AI and also delves into the concept of creating luck in the tech industry.

The Waves of AI:
In these early days of AI, we can identify at least four waves of development. Wave 1 consists of GenAI native companies like ChatGPT, Midjourney, Character.AI, and Stable Diffusion, which have gained significant revenue and user traction. Wave 2, the current wave, involves early startup adopters and fast mid-market incumbents who are leveraging technologies like GPT-3.5/4. Companies like Perplexity, Langchain, Harvey, Navan, Notion, Quora, Replit, and Zapier are leading the way in this wave.

Looking ahead, Wave 3 is on the horizon, which will see the emergence of new startups incorporating AI in various formats like voice and video. Additionally, natural language processing will find more applications in different verticals, and innovative infrastructure solutions will be developed by companies like Eleven Labs/LMNT/LFG Labs and Braintrust. Finally, Wave 4, which is expected to arrive around 2024/2025, will witness the adoption of AI by larger enterprises beyond the likes of Microsoft, Adobe, Google, and Meta. These companies will start launching AI-powered products that go beyond demos and prototypes.

Creating Luck in the Tech Industry:
Aside from the progress in AI, there is also a concept of creating luck in the tech industry. Jason Roberts introduced the idea of "Luck Surface Area" (LSA), which refers to the active attitude one can adopt to increase the likelihood of positive random events. It involves doing more things and telling more people about them. By expanding the umbrella of one's interests and actively seeking opportunities, individuals can position themselves to capture more luck.

Naval Ravikant further breaks down luck into four categories: hope luck, hustle luck, prepared mind luck, and becoming the best at what you do. Hope luck is when luck finds you by chance, while hustle luck is the result of continuous effort and stumbling upon opportunities. Prepared mind luck requires being sensitive to chances that others might miss, and becoming the best at what you do ultimately leads to opportunities seeking you out.

Incorporating these ideas, it is essential to have a growth mindset and actively pursue opportunities rather than passively waiting for luck to strike. As Charles Kettering said, "I have never heard of anyone stumbling on something sitting down." Derek Sivers emphasizes the need for extreme actions to achieve extreme results, while Seneca and Louis Pasteur highlight the significance of preparation meeting opportunity.

Actionable Advice:

1. Expand your horizons: Embrace a diverse range of interests and explore different fields. By broadening your knowledge and experiences, you increase your luck surface area and open yourself up to new opportunities.

2. Take action and share your work: Don't wait for luck to come to you, actively seek out opportunities and tell people about your work. Networking and sharing your ideas increase the chances of serendipitous encounters and collaborations.

3. Continuously improve your skills: Strive to become the best at what you do by refining your skills and knowledge. This not only increases your value in the industry but also attracts opportunities and luck to your doorstep.

Conclusion:
As we navigate the early days of AI, it is crucial to recognize the transformative nature of the technology and the waves of development it brings. The possibilities are expanding, and it is only a matter of time before AI becomes more prevalent across industries. Simultaneously, individuals can take an active role in creating luck in the tech industry by expanding their interests, taking action, and continuously improving their skills. By embracing these principles, one can position themselves to seize opportunities and thrive in this new era of AI.