The next big thing will start out looking like a toy. This is a key insight from Clay Christensen's "disruptive technology" theory. Disruptive technologies are often dismissed as toys because they initially undershoot user needs. However, to distinguish disruptive toys from those that will remain just toys, it is important to look at products as processes. One crucial factor to consider is the speed of the process. Is it getting better or worse?

The next big thing will start out looking like a toy. This is a key insight from Clay Christensen's "disruptive technology" theory. Disruptive technologies are often dismissed as toys because they initially undershoot user needs. However, to distinguish disruptive toys from those that will remain just toys, it is important to look at products as processes. One crucial factor to consider is the speed of the process. Is it getting better or worse?

While sustaining technologies may be the focus of many startups, they are unlikely to be the ones dominating the top lists in 2020. The real game-changers are disruptive technologies that sneak by because people dismiss them as toys. These technologies are designed to ride the wave of external forces, such as the decreasing cost of microchips, the ubiquity of bandwidth, and the increasing intelligence of mobile devices. By leveraging these changes, disruptive technologies can climb up the utility curve and eventually surpass user needs.

A prime example of a disruptive technology that has surpassed user needs is Wikipedia. Despite being constantly edited by spammers, vandals, and other troublemakers, the good guys behind Wikipedia make it better at a faster rate. This continuous improvement process has allowed Wikipedia to meet and exceed users' needs for encyclopedic information. The lesson here is that if a product is steadily improving, it has the potential to disrupt the market, even if it initially appears as just a toy.

Moving on to the ICED Theory - Growing Infrequent Products, we explore the challenges faced by products with low usage frequency. Products that are used less than once per month fall into the "Forgettable Zone" because users are more likely to forget about them. In contrast, products with higher usage frequency are within the "Habit Zone" as they are easier to build recurring habits around.

The ICED theory provides a mental model to address the challenges of infrequent products and develop a growth-oriented approach. The theory breaks down the factors influencing infrequent products into four dimensions: Degree of Infrequency (I), Degree of Control Over the User Experience (C), Degree of Engagement Before, After, and During the Transaction (E), and Distinctiveness of the Product (D).

Infrequent products often suffer from poor product recall by customers. The degree of infrequency also impacts key business decisions such as monetization and the cost of acquiring traffic. Higher engagement is crucial for infrequent products to foster customer loyalty. Engagement is influenced by the complexity of the transaction, the degree of touch, and the predictability of retention. Reducing the perceived effort of a transaction can dissuade customers from being disloyal and reduce churn.

Distinctiveness is another important factor for infrequent products. Failure to stand out and the infrequency of transactions can strain customer acquisition. Unlike frequent products, infrequent products rely more on market penetration for product-market fit due to the wider time gap between transactions.

It is worth noting that the frequency of a product also affects its resilience to economic cycles. Frequent products like WhatsApp and Google Search are less affected by macroeconomic factors. On the other hand, highly infrequent products with a high order value are more susceptible to these factors.

In conclusion, the next big thing often starts out looking like a toy. Disruptive technologies that leverage external forces and continuously improve have the potential to surpass user needs and disrupt the market. Infrequent products face unique challenges, but by focusing on engagement, distinctiveness, and reducing perceived effort, they can overcome these obstacles and achieve growth. Before we wrap up, here are three actionable pieces of advice:

1. Embrace Disruption: Don't dismiss new technologies as toys just because they undershoot user needs initially. Look for the potential to ride external forces and continuously improve.

2. Prioritize Engagement: For infrequent products, engagement is crucial for customer loyalty. Reduce the effort required for transactions to discourage churn and foster retention.

3. Stand Out: In a market crowded with infrequent products, distinctiveness is key. Differentiate your product to attract customer attention and drive acquisition.

By understanding these principles and taking action, you can position your product for success in an ever-evolving market.