The Next Big Thing: From Toy to Disruptive Technology

The Next Big Thing: From Toy to Disruptive Technology

"The next big thing will start out looking like a toy." This bold statement holds true when we examine the phenomenon of disruptive technologies. Clay Christensen's theory of disruptive technology provides us with valuable insights into the way big new things often sneak by incumbents. Disruptive technologies are initially dismissed as mere toys because they fail to meet the existing user needs. However, if we shift our perspective and view products as processes, we can uncover the true potential of these seemingly insignificant toys.

To understand the power of disruptive technologies, we must consider the external forces that drive their growth. The decreasing cost of microchips, the ubiquity of bandwidth, and the increasing intelligence of mobile devices are just a few examples of these forces. A disruptive product is one that is designed to leverage these changes and ride the wave of utility improvement. By continuously evolving and getting better, disruptive technologies eventually surpass the user needs that were initially undershot.

An excellent example of a disruptive technology is Wikipedia. Despite the constant challenges it faces from spammers, vandals, and other undesirable contributors, Wikipedia continues to improve at an astonishing rate. This process-driven approach allows Wikipedia to meet and exceed users' needs for encyclopedic information. While startups with sustaining technologies may attract attention in the short term, it is the disruptive technologies that will ultimately dominate the top lists in 2020.

Now, let's shift our focus to an intriguing project called "Catching Unicorns with GLTR." This project explores the idea that natural writing often includes unpredictable words that are domain-specific. By leveraging artificial intelligence models used to generate fake text, GLTR aims to detect whether a text appears too likely to be from a human writer. This concept is fascinating because it demonstrates that the same models used to create text can also be used as tools for detection.

GLTR works by ranking all the words that the model knows and computing the rank of the observed following word. By analyzing the distribution of colors associated with these ranks, we can determine the likelihood of a text being generated. In a generated text, we would expect to see a majority of green and yellow words, indicating a high degree of certainty. However, a human-written text would exhibit a mix of unexpected purple and red words, along with a higher level of uncertainty.

Interestingly, the GPT-2 model itself was used to produce non-conditioned text for this project. The resulting visualization clearly demonstrates the model's ability to detect its own text accurately, as indicated by the prevalence of green and yellow words.

In conclusion, the journey from toy to disruptive technology is filled with surprises and underestimations. Disruptive technologies may start small and be dismissed as toys, but they have the potential to reshape industries and overthrow established incumbents. To stay ahead of the curve, it is crucial to recognize and embrace the power of these disruptive forces. Here are three actionable pieces of advice to keep in mind:

1. Embrace the "toy" phase: Don't dismiss new technologies simply because they seem insignificant at first glance. Look beyond the surface and identify their potential to disrupt the status quo.

2. Understand the external forces: Stay informed about the broader trends and changes that can impact the utility and adoption of new technologies. By recognizing these external forces, you can position yourself to ride the wave of disruption.

3. Leverage AI for detection: As AI models become more sophisticated, they can be used not only to generate content but also to detect artificial and human-written text. Explore tools like GLTR to enhance your ability to distinguish between genuine and generated text.

By embracing these insights and taking proactive steps towards understanding and leveraging disruptive technologies, you can position yourself at the forefront of innovation and secure a competitive advantage in the ever-evolving landscape of technology and business.