The Importance of Market and Fast Moving Water in Startup Success

The Importance of Market and Fast Moving Water in Startup Success

Starting a successful startup requires a rare skill of assessing the speed and direction of the water surrounding you at all times. It is important to find the fast moving water, which is the mental model that helps decide who those people should be in the first place and what one is building in the first place. The concept of fast-moving water is beyond product-market fit, and one wants to read the river for leading indicators, not lagging ones. This is vital to avoid sectors that give one short-run success of product-market fit but long-term irrelevance. Thus, the market is the most important factor in a startup's success or failure.

To succeed in a great market, the market pulls a product out of the startup. The product doesn't need to be great; it just has to work. And, the market doesn't care how good the team is, as long as the team can produce that viable product. Conversely, when a great team meets a lousy market, the market wins. Therefore, a startup founder should focus obsessively on getting to product-market fit, which is the only thing that matters. Lots of startups fail before product-market fit ever happens. Do whatever is required to get to product-market fit.

One should look for technology shifts that enable something new to happen, such as mobile phones, blockchain, and machine vision. These technologies create a current, and then spawn other currents. Additionally, one should look for a low-quality example that's doing suspiciously well. Many iconic companies were born from a second-mover advantage in fast moving water. Thus, when thinking about what company to start, add an analysis of the fast moving water to one's way of thinking.

In conclusion, the market is the most important factor in a startup's success or failure. As a startup founder, one should focus on getting to product-market fit, even if it requires changing out people, rewriting one's product, or moving into a different market. Moreover, one should look for technology shifts and a low-quality example that's doing suspiciously well to find the fast moving water. By finding the fast moving water and moving there, one can increase one's chances of hitting the big outcome.