Steelmanning: How to Discover the Truth by Helping Your Opponent

Steelmanning: How to Discover the Truth by Helping Your Opponent

Steelmanning is a concept that involves crafting the best possible version of your opponent's argument. It is the opposite of strawmanning, which involves misrepresenting a position to make it easier to attack. While devil's advocacy can be a fun exercise, steelmanning requires more willpower and open-mindedness.

The idea behind steelmanning is to help your counterpart by strengthening their argument. By doing so, you challenge your own views and get closer to the truth. John Stuart Mill once said, "He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." It is important to be flexible and open to listening to opponents in order to truly understand the full picture.

One way to practice steelmanning is to treat a contentious subject as if you were getting to know a new person or discovering a new culture. The more you feel disagreement with what you discover, the more your views are challenged, and the closer you get to the truth. Writing down your thoughts and argumentation can also help structure your thinking and uncover any weaknesses in your own position.

Another aspect of steelmanning is helping your counterpart steelman their own argument. This involves understanding their perspective and helping them make the best possible case for what they believe. It doesn't mean you have to agree with them, but by seeing the world through their eyes, you gain a deeper understanding of the truth.

Arguing on your counterpart's behalf is another way to practice steelmanning. It involves knowing the reasons on the opposite side in their most plausible and persuasive form. By doing so, you challenge your own beliefs and gain a clearer understanding of the truth.

Incorporating steelmanning into everyday conversations may not always be practical. It is best suited for emotional and high-stakes topics where getting to the truth is crucial. However, by practicing steelmanning, we can become more open-minded and willing to engage in constructive dialogue.

Now let's shift our focus to the red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in startup metrics. The Growth Accounting Framework provides lagging metrics, making it hard to predict the future. However, understanding the quality and scalability of acquisition and engagement loops can give insights into a startup's potential.

Acquisition loops, which power the positive term for new users, and engagement loops, which power reactivation and inactive users, are key areas to analyze. The quality and defensibility of these loops are important factors to consider. Examples of acquisition loops include user-generated content and SEO, paid marketing, and viral growth.

When evaluating a startup's acquisition mix, it is crucial to look for signals that the dominant channels are proprietary and repeatable. Understanding the source and quality of signups by channel can provide insights into the scalability of a startup's growth strategy. Linear channels may re-engage users, but it is more effective when users re-engage each other or themselves.

The social feedback loop in a network-based product relies on easy content creation and a high density of relevant connections. Cohort curves should ideally flatten at a rate higher than 20%, indicating that each signup becomes a sticky, active user over time. Monitoring the volume and click-through rates of notifications can help detect artificially manufactured engagement.

Engagement metrics are challenging to move compared to acquisition metrics. However, focusing on new user activation and upselling users from one frequency segment to another can lead to growth. Achieving network density and easy content creation are crucial for bringing users back into the network and increasing engagement.

In conclusion, steelmanning and understanding startup metrics both require open-mindedness and a willingness to challenge our own beliefs. By crafting the best possible version of our opponent's argument, we can discover the truth. Likewise, by analyzing the red flags and magic numbers in startup metrics, investors can gain insights into a startup's potential. Here are three actionable pieces of advice:

1. Practice steelmanning in high-stakes and emotional conversations to challenge your own views and get closer to the truth.
2. Evaluate a startup's acquisition and engagement loops to understand their scalability and potential for growth.
3. Focus on new user activation and upselling to increase engagement metrics in a startup.

By incorporating these practices and advice, we can foster a deeper understanding of different perspectives and make more informed decisions.