The Criticality of Timing: The Future of Social is Bringing People Together

The Criticality of Timing: The Future of Social is Bringing People Together

In today's fast-paced world, timing plays a crucial role in determining the outcome of our work. Just like in personal relationships, a great match is not only about capabilities and shared values but also about timing. Similarly, companies have unique needs, opportunities, and insecurities at any given point in time.

Leading an industry requires different leaders or different leadership styles at different times. It is essential to wait for the process to unfold and achieve a vision without breaking the system. This requires generating buy-in, exhaustive testing, and allowing time for ideas to sink in and for people to get on board. Patience is key in achieving long-term success.

Pacing is also important, and most new ideas should be killed for the sake of focus. Only the best leaders can maintain healthy incrementalism while also implementing transformational changes when necessary. Incrementalism, although valuable for steady growth, can limit the market size as it reaches its local maximum.

However, incrementalism can also kill great ideas by pushing them to fruition too late. Some new ideas are inflections and must be executed fully before they can function effectively. The best teams understand when to reorganize and pull off these inflections, leveraging the timing to their advantage.

Investing, like any other discipline focused on the future, requires a deep understanding of the present. Forecasts for the future should be grounded in an accurate understanding of present-day problems and the needs of humanity. The basic human values of being valued, appreciated, trusted, respected, understood, and avoiding being taken advantage of, should always be considered.

When it comes to investing, the right timing is determined by whether a team is attempting to defy a likely outcome or make it happen in a better way. Investing in the latter proves to be more successful in the long run. The best teams leverage forces already underway and are grounded in the present, capturing a tailwind that propels them forward.

Shifting our focus to the future of social interactions, we can see that the tools we started with were rudimentary, and the builders were naively optimistic about the potential of a more open and connected world. However, we now live in a world where likes and follows dominate our perception of ourselves. Social interactions have become warped into social competitions, as everyone becomes a media channel.

Recognizing this shift, Facebook itself is repositioning its efforts around more private communications. In private conversations, people tend to express more of their true selves and share more authentically than they do on public feeds or "media channels." This move reflects the need for genuine connections and the desire to share our true selves with others.

The main revenue driver for top social companies today is advertising, and a significant factor in advertising revenue is the time users spend on the app. However, revenue models built solely on time spent are zero-sum business models. To truly bring people together, we need to focus on real experiences, not just media consumption.

The real experiences we have together, such as going to concerts, eating dinner, or simply hanging out, create lasting memories and foster true connections. Connection and inclusion are essential in creating meaningful social interactions. The future of social products will revolve around creating experiences that allow friends to do things together.

In conclusion, timing is a critical factor in achieving success, both in business and in personal relationships. By understanding the unique needs and opportunities of the present moment, we can navigate the ever-changing landscape and make the right decisions. Additionally, shifting our focus from media-centric interactions to real experiences will lead us towards a more authentic and fulfilling social future.

Actionable Advice:

1. Be patient and allow the process to unfold. Achieving a vision without breaking the system requires time for ideas to sink in and for people to get on board.
2. Embrace healthy incrementalism while being open to occasional transformational changes. This balance allows for steady growth while also seizing opportunities for innovation.
3. Invest in teams that leverage forces already underway and are grounded in the present. By understanding the present-day problems and needs of humanity, you can make smarter investment decisions.