The Architects of Familiar Surprises: How Philosophers Think and Shape the Future

The Architects of Familiar Surprises: How Philosophers Think and Shape the Future

"Subscribe to Sequoia's newsletter". I always go into a meeting with a positive outlook on what the company could become. What type of future is this team creating? What type of future do I want to live in? What type of future do I want Sequoia to help create? Ask yourself: “Why now?” What has changed in the market or ecosystem to uniquely enable this opportunity today? Why couldn't it have been created 3 years earlier, or 3 years later? If you trace the success of many of the biggest technology giants today, they always took advantage of a key enabler: a technology advancement, a social or cultural shift in consumer behavior, oftentimes both. Most consumers are simultaneously neophilic—curious to discover new things—and deeply neophobic—afraid of anything that is too new. The best hit-makers are gifted at creating moments of meaning by marrying new and old, anxiety and understanding. In essence, they are architects of familiar surprises.

"How Philosophers Think - David Perell". Most of the time a philosopher spends writing doesn’t involve typing. Rather, it’s a form of intellectual exploration—following intellectual embryos and running into various roadblocks on their way to discovering an idea’s mature form. Philosophers are the most rigorous thinkers I know. You understand an idea not when you’ve memorized it, but when you know why its specific form was chosen over all the alternatives. Like intellectual boxers; they come to understand ideas by making them fight with each other. Ideas are like clothing. They change with the times and reveal how much the actions of others influence our decision making. The faster you jump to conclusions, the more likely you are to default to fashionable thinking.

Humanity has succeeded not because of the intelligence of atomic individuals, but because we’ve learned to outsource knowledge to the tribe. (note: This is what I see in Glasp) Social learning is humanity’s primary advantage over primates and, in Henrich’s words, “the secret of our success.” (note: Collective learning is how humans got smarter across generations.) As Duke University professor Timur Kuran has shown, people who try to maintain a secret religion for a long time usually abandon their faith. Psychologically, the burden of falsifying your beliefs in public is too heavy to shoulder. That’s when the magnet of culture pulls us in and kidnaps our beliefs. The more people are exposed to an idea, the more likely they are to believe it. The more fashionable it is, the more exposure it’ll receive. But the popularity of an idea doesn’t make it correct. Like the secret menu at In-N-Out Burger, the best options aren’t always advertised. (note: Interesting point)

Jumping to conclusions limits your ability to discover the truth because you can’t jump to conclusions outside the spotlight. Philosophers know that every idea comes packaged in an implicit frame. Knowing that axioms will mold the ultimate shape of an idea, good philosophers tend to critique the premise of an idea—the frame—instead of the conclusion. When you restrict yourself to one side of the intellectual spectrum, you limit your capacity to find truth. The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. Philosophy, like regular life, is best experienced with an attitude of intellectual grace. “What can this person teach me?” is a much more productive question than “How is this person wrong?” The world progresses when people with conviction take action, often against the tide of consensus. We distort information to make ourselves appear better than we actually are. Our brains are simultaneously designed to seek out information and destroy that information after we acquire it. Trivers once said: “We deceive ourselves the better to deceive others.” If history is an unceasing sprint toward the future, human nature doesn’t change. Only the laws of physics are more predictable. What’s happened in the past will happen in the future—again, again, and again. (note: Related to Lindy effect) Social media has turned so many into public relations professionals who pursue likeability instead of truth. Through the twin principles of reason and rationality, philosophers risk their social credit scores in the short term to improve civilization in the long run.

Combining these two pieces of content, we can see a common thread emerge: the importance of understanding the future and the power of critical thinking. Both Sequoia's newsletter and David Perell's thoughts on philosophers highlight the need to consider the changing landscape and question popular beliefs. In a world where consumers are both curious and afraid of the new, the architects of familiar surprises are the ones who can navigate this delicate balance. Similarly, philosophers engage in rigorous thinking and intellectual exploration to challenge ideas and uncover the truth.

To apply these insights to our own lives, here are three actionable pieces of advice:

1. Embrace curiosity and skepticism: Instead of accepting ideas at face value, cultivate a mindset of curiosity and skepticism. Question the status quo, challenge prevailing beliefs, and explore alternative possibilities. By doing so, you can uncover new opportunities and avoid falling into the trap of fashionable thinking.

2. Seek diverse perspectives: Expand your intellectual horizons by seeking out diverse perspectives. Engage in conversations with people who hold different beliefs and ideologies. By understanding multiple viewpoints, you can develop a more nuanced understanding of complex issues and make better-informed decisions.

3. Embrace uncertainty and intellectual grace: Embrace the uncertainty of the future and approach it with intellectual grace. Hold opposing ideas in mind simultaneously and be open to learning from others. By doing so, you can navigate the complexities of the modern world and contribute to the progress of society.

In conclusion, the architects of familiar surprises and philosophers share a common goal: shaping the future by understanding the present and challenging prevailing beliefs. By incorporating curiosity, skepticism, diverse perspectives, and intellectual grace into our own lives, we can contribute to a better future and navigate the complexities of an ever-changing world.