The Power of Obvious Advice and the Advancements in Artificial Intelligence

The Power of Obvious Advice and the Advancements in Artificial Intelligence

In today's fast-paced world, we are bombarded with advice from all directions. Whether it's about personal development, career growth, or even promoting a book, there seems to be an endless supply of tips and tricks to follow. But what if I told you that the best advice is often the most obvious? It may sound counterintuitive, but it's true. Scott H Young, in his article "Good Advice is 'Obvious,'" argues that good advice is typically "obvious," and sometimes, even "counterintuitive" advice can be bad.

So, what exactly does it mean for advice to be "obvious"? Young explains that we judge obviousness not by whether the information is new, but by whether it violates our intuitions. Our intuitions are often fuzzy, leading us to believe that certain scenarios are plausible. However, it is in these moments that we need to focus on the basics and revisit what we already know.

Take the example of promoting a book. James Clear, the author of the highly successful book "Atomic Habits," shared his strategy with Young. Clear revealed that he had been on over 200 podcasts in the first six months of his book's launch, with around 80 podcasts released in the first week alone. While this may seem like a well-known tactic for book promotion, the reality is that very few people actually take advantage of it.

This highlights the importance of acting on obvious advice. We may already know certain strategies or techniques, but it's the implementation that truly matters. Knowledge is not about discovering secrets; it's about identifying the right approach among the many plausible ones.

As we navigate the ever-changing landscape of technological advancements, one field that has captured our attention is artificial intelligence (AI). The brief history of AI reveals just how fast the world has changed, and it leaves us wondering what might be next. Just a decade ago, machines were unable to provide language or image recognition at a human level. However, AI systems have steadily become more capable and are now surpassing human performance in these domains.

Training computation is a crucial factor in the development of AI systems. It is measured in floating point operations (FLOP), with one FLOP equivalent to one addition, subtraction, multiplication, or division of two decimal numbers. Alongside training computation, algorithms, and input data are the other two fundamental factors driving the capabilities of AI systems.

For the past six decades, training computation has followed the trajectory of Moore's Law, doubling approximately every 20 months. However, since 2010, this exponential growth has accelerated even further, with a doubling time of just six months. This rapid progress has led to speculations about the future of AI.

In a draft report on AI timelines, it was estimated that there is a 50% probability of developing "transformative AI" by 2040. This means that within the next two decades, we could witness groundbreaking advancements in artificial intelligence. Some experts even believe that human-level AI could be developed much sooner than expected.

When considering the advancements in AI, it is essential to find common ground between the power of obvious advice and the potential of technology. Just as acting on obvious advice can lead to success, understanding the basics of AI and its underlying principles is crucial for harnessing its potential.

To tie these concepts together, here are three actionable pieces of advice:

1. Embrace the Obvious: Don't dismiss advice just because it seems obvious. Sometimes, the most basic strategies can yield remarkable results. Focus on the basics and revisit what you already know. Implementing the obvious can often make a significant difference.

2. Stay Informed: Keep up with the advancements in technology, particularly in the field of AI. Understanding the basics of AI and its underlying principles will enable you to make informed decisions and leverage its potential in various aspects of life.

3. Act on Knowledge: It's not enough to know the theories or strategies; you must take action. Whether it's promoting a book or exploring the possibilities of AI, implementation is key. Act on the knowledge you acquire, and you'll be one step closer to achieving your goals.

In conclusion, the power of obvious advice and the advancements in artificial intelligence are two seemingly disparate concepts. However, when we examine them closely, we find common ground. Obvious advice, though it may seem familiar, holds immense value when put into practice. Similarly, the advancements in AI have the potential to revolutionize various industries and aspects of our lives. By embracing the obvious and staying informed about AI, we can tap into the power of both and propel ourselves towards success in this ever-evolving world.