The Next Big Thing: From Toy to Disruptive Technology

The Next Big Thing: From Toy to Disruptive Technology

"The next big thing will start out looking like a toy." This statement holds true for many groundbreaking innovations that have disrupted industries and transformed our lives. Clay Christensen's theory of "disruptive technology" highlights the fact that these game-changers are often dismissed as mere toys in their early stages. The reason behind this dismissal is that these technologies initially undershoot user needs. However, to distinguish between toys that remain toys and those that become disruptive, we must look at products as processes.

One essential factor that propels disruptive technologies forward is the advancement of external forces. These forces include microchips becoming cheaper, bandwidth becoming ubiquitous, and mobile devices becoming smarter. These developments create an environment where disruptive technologies can ride the wave of change up the utility curve. A prime example of a disruptive process is Wikipedia. Despite being edited daily by spammers, vandals, and other disruptive elements, the dedicated contributors consistently make it better at an impressive rate. As long as Wikipedia continues to improve steadily, it will eventually meet and surpass user needs.

On the other hand, startups with sustaining technologies are unlikely to dominate the top lists in 2020. It is the disruptive technologies that often go unnoticed because they are dismissed as toys. However, if a technology is truly exceptional and its benefits are evident, it will garner attention and be emulated.

Building a New Science of Progress

In our quest for progress, it is crucial to understand the dynamics of advancement across various domains. The discoveries and innovations that have elevated living standards for all have historically emerged from small pockets of innovative effort. Silicon Valley in software and Switzerland's Basel region in life sciences are contemporary examples of such hubs. Interestingly, throughout history, innovation has thrived in places where different cultures converge, such as port towns and central locations for trade.

While major breakthroughs capture our attention, progress is also fueled by countless smaller advancements. These incremental improvements, when combined, can result in a significant leap forward for society. However, the study of progress itself remains understudied. Progress encompasses economic, technological, scientific, cultural, and organizational advancements that have shaped our lives and raised living standards over the past few centuries.

To accelerate progress, there is a need for a comprehensive intellectual movement focused on understanding its dynamics. This movement should aim to identify and nurture brilliant young minds, facilitate the exchange and sharing of ideas within effective small groups, establish appropriate incentives for participants in innovative ecosystems, and explore the productivity differences among various organizations. Additionally, it should delve into areas such as the selection and funding of scientists, among other related issues.

Progress Studies, as a field of study, would prompt a decentralized shift in priorities among academics, philanthropists, and funding agencies. Its success lies in identifying interventions that can effectively increase progress and ensuring their adoption by various institutions. In many ways, Progress Studies is akin to medicine, as its goal is to treat rather than merely understand. It is essential for humanity to improve its understanding of how to get better at progressing.

Actionable Advice for Progress:

1. Embrace Disruptive Technologies: Do not dismiss new technologies as mere toys. Look for their potential to ride the wave of external forces and tap into their transformative power.

2. Foster Innovation Hubs: Encourage the convergence of different cultures and disciplines by creating spaces where ideas can flourish. By fostering innovation hubs, we create an environment conducive to progress.

3. Prioritize Progress Studies: Support the development of a comprehensive intellectual movement focused on understanding and accelerating progress. By investing in Progress Studies, we can unlock the potential for significant advancements in various domains.

In conclusion, the next big thing often starts small, dismissed as a toy. Disruptive technologies ride the wave of external forces, while progress is driven by incremental improvements and innovation hubs. To accelerate progress, we need a comprehensive intellectual movement dedicated to understanding and advancing various aspects of society. By embracing disruptive technologies, fostering innovation hubs, and prioritizing Progress Studies, we can propel ourselves towards a future of continuous advancement and improvement.