The Next Big Thing: From Dismissed Toys to Disruptive Technologies

The Next Big Thing: From Dismissed Toys to Disruptive Technologies

In the ever-evolving world of technology and innovation, it's often the case that the next big thing starts out looking like a mere toy. This may seem counterintuitive, but it's a phenomenon that has been observed time and time again. Clay Christensen's theory of "disruptive technology" sheds light on this intriguing pattern. According to Christensen, disruptive technologies are often dismissed as toys because they initially undershoot user needs. However, it is crucial to look at products as processes to distinguish between toys that are truly disruptive and those that will remain insignificant.

One key aspect to consider when evaluating the potential of a toy turning into a disruptive technology is the speed at which the underlying processes are improving. Are the microchips getting cheaper? Is bandwidth becoming ubiquitous? Are mobile devices getting smarter? These external forces play a significant role in determining whether a product can ride the wave of these changes and ascend the utility curve. Take Wikipedia, for example. It is more than just a static product; it is a living process. Every day, it is edited by spammers, vandals, and wackos, but every day, the dedicated contributors make it better at an accelerating rate. This constant improvement ensures that Wikipedia meets and eventually surpasses the users' needs for encyclopedic information.

While startups with sustaining technologies may gain attention in the short term, it is highly unlikely that they will be the ones dominating the top lists in 2020. The true disruptors, the ones that sneak by while being dismissed as toys, are the ones to watch out for. This is because if a technology is truly groundbreaking and its benefits are evident, it will attract attention and be quickly imitated by others. Therefore, it is the technologies that are initially overlooked that have the potential to revolutionize industries and change the status quo.

But how did humans themselves become so intelligent and adaptable? According to Bill Gates, about 70,000 years ago, Homo sapiens underwent a "cognitive revolution." This revolution gave them the edge over their rivals and allowed them to spread from East Africa to every corner of the planet. This concept of a cognitive revolution resonates with David Christian's notion of "collective learning" in Big History. Our ability to share, store, and build upon information distinguishes us as humans and has been instrumental in our thriving as a species.

Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of human intelligence is our ability to unite millions of strangers around common myths. Ideas like freedom, human rights, gods, laws, and capitalism exist solely in our imaginations, yet they have the power to bind us together and motivate us to cooperate on complex tasks. Our imaginations, in a sense, are our special ability. They allow us to create shared belief systems that shape our societies and drive us forward.

It is also important to note that labeling the shift to agriculture as a "mistake" overlooks the tremendous advancements that came with it. Farming societies were able to specialize, leading to the development of written languages, new technologies, and art - all things we value and appreciate today. The ability to cultivate crops and settle in one place laid the foundation for the progress that followed.

In conclusion, the next big thing will always start out as a dismissed toy. It is through a thoughtful understanding of products as processes and the ability to ride the wave of external forces that true disruptors emerge. Our human journey to intelligence and adaptability has been marked by cognitive revolutions and the power of shared beliefs. As we navigate the ever-changing landscape of technology and innovation, it is essential to keep an open mind and recognize the potential of what may initially seem trivial. Embracing the "toys" of today may just lead us to the disruptive technologies of tomorrow.

Actionable Advice:

1. Embrace the dismissible: Don't underestimate the potential of seemingly trivial ideas or products. They may hold the key to the next big thing.
2. Keep an eye on external forces: Pay attention to the larger trends and changes happening in the world of technology. These forces can provide valuable insights into the direction of future disruptions.
3. Foster a culture of continuous improvement: Whether it's a product or a process, focus on constantly making it better. This relentless pursuit of improvement is what sets disruptors apart from the rest.

In our quest for progress and innovation, let us remember that the next big thing may very well start out looking like a toy. By recognizing the value of these dismissed ideas and staying attuned to the broader shifts happening around us, we can position ourselves at the forefront of the disruptive wave.