The Next Big Thing: Disruptive Technologies and the Sneakiness of Toys

The Next Big Thing: Disruptive Technologies and the Sneakiness of Toys

In today's fast-paced world, it's easy to overlook the potential of new technologies that initially appear insignificant. Clay Christensen's theory of "disruptive technology" sheds light on this phenomenon by emphasizing that the next big thing often starts out being dismissed as a mere "toy." This dismissal stems from the fact that these technologies, when first launched, fail to meet the full range of user needs. However, what distinguishes disruptive toys from those that remain trivial is their ability to leverage external forces and ride the wave of technological advancements.

To truly understand the disruptive potential of a toy, we must view it as a process rather than a static product. One crucial aspect to consider is the speed of this process. Is it improving or deteriorating? While sustaining technologies may offer incremental improvements, disruptive technologies harness the power of external factors such as cheaper microchips, ubiquitous bandwidth, and smarter mobile devices. These advancements enable disruptive toys to evolve rapidly up the utility curve, eventually exceeding user expectations and disrupting established industries.

A prime example of a disruptive process is Wikipedia. Despite being constantly bombarded by spammers, vandals, and other detractors, Wikipedia continues to improve at an astonishing rate. The relentless efforts of its dedicated contributors outweigh the negative contributions, resulting in a platform that steadily meets and surpasses users' encyclopedic needs. This highlights the importance of process speed in determining the disruptive potential of a toy – when good people outpace the bad, the toy becomes a force to be reckoned with.

However, it's important to note that sustaining technologies are unlikely to be the ones dominating the top lists in 2020. Instead, it will be disruptive technologies that manage to fly under the radar, precisely because they are initially dismissed as toys. This is a testament to their true potential – if a technology is genuinely groundbreaking and its benefits are evident, it will attract attention and inspire imitation.

The Three Economies of the Internet: Knowledge, Access, and Commerce

The internet has ushered in a new era of economic paradigms, each with its own distinct characteristics. The first economy, known as the Knowledge Economy, has been the dominant force for the past two decades. This economy revolves around the organization and dissemination of information. Giants like Google and Twitter play pivotal roles in organizing the world's knowledge and conversations respectively. With just an internet connection, individuals can access information about any subject within seconds. However, the abundance of knowledge has created a new challenge – filtering qualified individuals from the masses.

This challenge leads us to the second economy, the Access Economy. While the Knowledge Economy provided everyone with the opportunity to become experts in their respective fields, the Access Economy focuses on matching qualified individuals with the right opportunities. It addresses the problem of information overload and offers a new framework for evaluating and identifying talent. However, despite the presence of countless talented creators, workers, and craftsmen, there is a lack of access for many due to the absence of mechanisms to prove their skills.

Finally, we have the Commerce Economy, where money flows across borders seamlessly, and smart contracts replace a significant portion of traditional middlemen. This economy aims to solve problems for billions of people by leveraging the potential of technology. However, it is important to recognize that just because something is possible does not mean it is feasible on a large scale. Before we can fully embrace the Commerce Economy, we must first organize the world's people and their talents through the Access Economy.

Actionable Advice for Embracing Disruptive Technologies and the Three Economies

1. Embrace the "toy" mentality: When evaluating new technologies, don't dismiss them simply because they appear trivial or insignificant at first glance. Look beyond the surface and consider the potential for disruption and the underlying processes driving their development.

2. Emphasize process speed: Pay attention to the speed at which a technology or platform is evolving. Is it getting better over time? Are the positive contributions outweighing the negative ones? Process speed can be a powerful indicator of a toy's disruptive potential.

3. Harness the power of the Three Economies: Recognize the distinct characteristics of the Knowledge, Access, and Commerce Economies. Leverage the knowledge economy to educate yourself and stay informed. Utilize the access economy to connect with qualified individuals and find the right opportunities. Finally, embrace the commerce economy to drive innovation and solve real-world problems.

In conclusion, the next big thing often starts off as a toy, dismissed by incumbents and industry leaders. However, by understanding the disruptive potential of technologies and embracing the three economies of the internet, we can stay ahead of the curve and harness the true power of innovation. By keeping an open mind, valuing process speed, and leveraging the opportunities presented by the Knowledge, Access, and Commerce Economies, we can navigate the ever-changing landscape of technology and drive meaningful progress.