Justifying Optimism: The Power of Failure and Envy in Driving Innovation and Advancement

Justifying Optimism: The Power of Failure and Envy in Driving Innovation and Advancement

Optimism is often seen as a naive and wishful thinking approach to life. However, physicist David Deutsch argues that optimism is not about prophesying success, but rather a way of explaining failure. In his view, failure is an essential component of progress and improvement. The reason things tend to get better is that we learn from our blunders, screw-ups, and disasters. Evolution itself operates on this principle - it teaches by destroying what doesn't work rather than showing us what does.

One might wonder, how does this tie in with the idea of building habit-forming products? The answer lies in the concept of innovation and advancement compounding over time. The biggest breakthroughs and innovations don't happen when everything is going smoothly. They occur when there is enough stress and challenges to push people into gear, forcing them to come up with creative solutions. As Nassim Taleb puts it, "The excess energy released from overreaction to setbacks is what innovates!"

The Hooked model, developed by Nir Eyal, provides a framework for building habit-forming products that keep users coming back for more. This model relies on triggers, actions, variable reward, and investment to create a loop that prompts users to return and use the product repeatedly. Triggers can be external or internal, and they are what get the users to the product. Actions are the simplest behaviors users engage in anticipation of a reward. Variable rewards are fulfilling but also leave the users wanting more. Finally, investment is the "bit of work" done by users to increase the likelihood of returning.

What is interesting is that the Hooked model aligns with the concept of optimism and failure-driven progress. The triggers in the model can be seen as the failures and setbacks that push us to seek solutions and improvements. The actions we take in anticipation of rewards are the problem-solving behaviors that drive innovation. The variable rewards mirror the endless possibilities for improvement and advancement that keep us hooked. And lastly, the investment represents the continuous effort to build upon the previous achievements and push the boundaries even further.

In this context, Charlie Munger's statement, "The world is not driven by greed; it's driven by envy," takes on a new meaning. Envy, in this context, can be seen as the driving force behind the desire to achieve and surpass the accomplishments of others. When we see someone accomplish a new feat, we are driven by envy to think, "I should be able to do that too - and even better." This envy fuels our motivation to innovate and improve, contributing to the cycle of progress.