The Next Big Thing: From Toy to Disruption

The Next Big Thing: From Toy to Disruption

"The next big thing will start out looking like a toy." This statement by Clay Christensen, the pioneer of disruptive technology theory, holds a powerful insight. Disruptive technologies often go unnoticed by incumbents because they initially fall short of user needs. They are dismissed as mere toys. However, to distinguish between toys that remain toys and toys that become disruptive, it is crucial to examine products as processes. Are they improving or deteriorating in terms of process speed?

While internal factors like process speed play a role, external forces such as the decreasing cost of microchips, ubiquitous bandwidth, and smarter mobile devices are even more influential. A disruptive product must be designed to ride these changes up the utility curve. Take Wikipedia as an example. It is a constantly evolving process, edited by a mix of spammers, vandals, and dedicated contributors. Despite the challenges, the good guys consistently make it better at a faster rate. As long as Wikipedia continues to improve, it will eventually surpass user needs for encyclopedic information. Hence, startups with sustaining technologies are unlikely to dominate the top lists in 2020. The ones that will make it to the top are the disruptive technologies that sneak by because they are dismissed as toys.

Lifelong Learning: The Path to Wisdom

Education should not end when schooling does. Lifelong learning is a continuous journey that requires reflection, reading, and testing of knowledge. Confucius said, "By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest." Experiences, coupled with reflection, can be the richest sources of investigation and discovery.

Learning occurs through our own experiences as well as the experiences of others. However, the ignorant cannot learn from their own mistakes, and the fool cannot learn from the mistakes of others. Thoughtful reflection is the key to making experiences more concrete and enhancing future recall and understanding. Reading, as Endersen suggests, is the foundation of indirect learning. It is one of the easiest and most effective changes one can make to pursue lifelong learning. Developing the ability to read for understanding and finding time to read regularly are crucial. Furthermore, testing understanding by simplifying concepts and explaining them in clear analogies helps solidify knowledge.

Three Actionable Advice for Success

1. Embrace Disruption: Instead of dismissing new technologies as toys, look for their potential to ride external forces and meet evolving user needs. Be open-minded and willing to explore new ideas that may initially seem insignificant.

2. Cultivate Reflection: Reflect on your own experiences and learn from them. Take the time to analyze situations, identify lessons, and apply them to future decisions. Thoughtful reflection enhances learning and wisdom.

3. Read for Growth: Make reading a priority in your life. Dedicate time each day to read books, articles, and other sources of knowledge. Reading broadens your perspective, exposes you to new ideas, and fuels lifelong learning.

Conclusion

The next big thing often starts as a toy, dismissed by incumbents who fail to recognize its potential for disruption. By understanding the importance of process speed, external forces, and continuous improvement, we can identify these disruptive technologies and seize the opportunities they present. Lifelong learning, through reflection and reading, is the key to adaptability and growth in an ever-changing world. Embrace disruption, cultivate reflection, and prioritize reading to stay ahead and succeed in the face of constant innovation.