Venture capital plays a smaller role in funding basic innovation than what is commonly believed. In 1997, venture capitalists invested over $10 billion, but only 6% of that amount went to startups. The majority of venture capital funds are actually used to build the infrastructure required to grow a business, such as manufacturing, marketing, and sales expenses. This means that venture capitalists are not primarily investing in good people and good ideas, but rather in industries that are more competitively forgiving than the market as a whole.

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Sep 25, 2023

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Venture capital plays a smaller role in funding basic innovation than what is commonly believed. In 1997, venture capitalists invested over $10 billion, but only 6% of that amount went to startups. The majority of venture capital funds are actually used to build the infrastructure required to grow a business, such as manufacturing, marketing, and sales expenses. This means that venture capitalists are not primarily investing in good people and good ideas, but rather in industries that are more competitively forgiving than the market as a whole.

Timing is a critical factor for venture capitalists. More than 80% of their investments go into the adolescent phase of a company's life cycle. The challenge for venture capitalists is to identify entrepreneurs who can advance a key technology to a certain stage, such as FDA approval, so that the company can go public or be sold to a major corporation. The presence of multiple venture capital firms investing in a company adds credibility and can increase the chances of success.

Venture capitalists expect a ten times return of capital over five years in exchange for financing one to two years of a company's start-up. They take a management fee of 2% to 3% of the total capital regardless of the fund's results. The investors receive 70% to 80% of the gains, while the venture capitalists receive the remaining 20% to 30%. However, on average, only one in ten good plans, people, and businesses succeed, and venture capitalists often build their reputations on one or two successful investments.

Contrary to popular belief, most basic research and invention funding comes from corporate or government sources, not venture capitalists. The United States has a unique willingness to embrace risk-taking and entrepreneurship, making it an attractive environment for startups. It is also common for individuals to leave and return to corporations, and this is often rewarded.

Twitter, on the other hand, operates as a host of microservices, with various functionalities exposed through APIs. Mobile was a game-changer for Twitter, as the immediacy of updates made it a perfect fit for smartphones. However, the company struggled to find a sustainable business model, and its reliance on third-party clients presented problems. Advertising seemed like a logical solution, but controlling the user interface was necessary to implement ads effectively.

Despite its financial challenges, Twitter's social graph and cultural impact make it an intriguing platform. It has a unique density of information and interest-driven network effects, making it irreplaceable for users in media, tech, and finance. Musk's offer to take Twitter private is interesting because it addresses these three factors: financials, social graph, and cultural impact.

To unlock Twitter's potential, it is suggested that the company be split into two separate entities. One would focus on the core Twitter service, including the social graph, while the other would handle the apps and advertising business. This would allow for competition among Twitter client companies, which would lead to more innovation and market-driven decisions on what users see.

In conclusion, venture capital plays a smaller role in funding innovation than commonly believed. Timing is crucial for venture capitalists, who expect a significant return on their investments. Twitter, despite its financial challenges, possesses a valuable social graph and has a significant cultural impact. Splitting the company and fostering competition among Twitter client companies could unlock its potential.

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