The Fine Balance between Short-Term & Long-Term Planning: Goal-Setting Doesn’t Work. Here’s What Does.

The Fine Balance between Short-Term & Long-Term Planning: Goal-Setting Doesn’t Work. Here’s What Does.

In the realm of planning and goal-setting, there exists a fine balance between short-term and long-term considerations. To understand this balance, we must first recognize the distinction between finite time and infinite time. Finite time refers to the time that is within our control and falls within the realm of near-term planning. On the other hand, infinite time encompasses externalities and events that are out of our control.

An interesting concept that illustrates the potential power of infinite time is the infinite monkey theorem. This theorem suggests that if a group of monkeys were left to randomly type on a keyboard for eternity, they would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare. This demonstrates how, on a long enough time horizon, possibility, probability, and predictability gradually converge.

So, how do we navigate this balance between short-term and long-term planning? One approach is to adopt the barbell approach to risk management, as proposed by economist and philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb. This approach involves taking on two extreme positions – one with a low level of risk and one with a high level of risk – rather than settling for a moderate position with a medium level of risk.

By incorporating this barbell approach into our planning, we can strike a balance between short-term planning and long-term optionality. In the near term, it is crucial to focus on offense and optimize our actions for finite time. This means prioritizing development based on how quickly we can become "dangerous" in our chosen fields.

On the other hand, in the long term, it is essential to shift our focus to defense and leverage infinite time to prepare for the unknown. This entails embracing the potential for extreme risk, albeit in small amounts, in order to maximize our potential for gain while minimizing potential losses.

Now, let's shift our attention to the concept of goal-setting and why it may not be as effective as we think. While setting goals is not inherently bad, the obsession with goal-setting alone can be misguided and counterproductive. Instead, we should devote more time to understanding the systems of desire that underlie our goals.

Every goal we set is embedded within a system of desire. These systems dictate what we want and how we go about achieving it. One of the key systems of desire is mimetic desire, which refers to our tendency to want what others want because they want it. Mimetic desire is an unconscious process of imitation, where we imitate the desires of those around us or those who came before us.

For example, the education system is a mimetic system of desire, where students strive to achieve certain goals and become a certain kind of person based on societal expectations. Similarly, social media platforms thrive on mimesis, as we often desire what others desire because there is comfort in knowing that someone else is pursuing the same thing.

In order to free ourselves from the constraints of these systems of desire, we must first step back and create distance from them. We need to gain a clear understanding of the systems that shape our desires and question their validity. This requires radical honesty and a willingness to see the systems for what they truly are.

Our most pressing problems are often problems of desire. We cannot want something that lies outside the system of desire we occupy unless we challenge the boundaries of our current systems. It is essential to fall in love with a better version of the future and not grow complacent within our existing systems.

To navigate these complexities, here are three actionable pieces of advice:

1. Embrace both offense and defense in your planning: Just like the barbell approach to risk management, adopt a balanced approach to your planning. Focus on short-term offense while also preparing for long-term defense.

2. Question the origin of your goals: Instead of blindly pursuing goals, take the time to understand where they come from. Are they a product of mimetic desire or societal expectations? By questioning their origin, you can ensure that your goals align with your true desires.

3. Step outside your current systems of desire: Challenge the boundaries of the systems that shape your desires. Seek alternative perspectives and explore new possibilities. By doing so, you can uncover emergent opportunities and create a better future for yourself.

In conclusion, finding a balance between short-term and long-term planning is crucial for success. By incorporating the barbell approach to risk management and understanding the systems of desire that underlie our goals, we can navigate the complexities of planning and achieve our desired outcomes. Remember to embrace both offense and defense, question the origin of your goals, and step outside your current systems of desire. Only then can you truly create a future that aligns with your authentic desires and aspirations.