Survivorship bias is a common logical error that distorts our understanding of the world. It happens when we assume that success tells the whole story and when we don’t adequately consider past failures. We often overlook the failures and focus only on the successful outcomes, leading us to draw inaccurate conclusions and make faulty decisions. To avoid this bias, we must do the work required to have an opinion and consider both sides of the argument.

Survivorship bias is a common logical error that distorts our understanding of the world. It happens when we assume that success tells the whole story and when we don’t adequately consider past failures. We often overlook the failures and focus only on the successful outcomes, leading us to draw inaccurate conclusions and make faulty decisions. To avoid this bias, we must do the work required to have an opinion and consider both sides of the argument.

"The Work Required to Have an Opinion" emphasizes the importance of putting in the effort to form a well-informed opinion. Charlie Munger, a successful investor and businessman, highlights the need to understand the other side's argument better than they do. This requires reading, talking to competent people, and thinking about the key variables and their interactions over time.

Munger also emphasizes the need to be open to different perspectives and to consider arguments on the other side. By doing so, we become our most intelligent critic and develop the intellectual honesty to challenge our own ideas. Rapid destruction of our ideas when the time is right is a valuable quality to acquire.

In line with Munger's views, Rabbi Moses ben Maimon (Maimonides) advises us to teach our tongues to say "I do not know" in order to progress. This highlights the importance of humility and the recognition that we don't have all the answers. Doing the work required to hold an opinion means being able to argue against ourselves better than others can.

One of the challenges in doing the work is our natural tendency to seek out information that confirms what we already believe. Confirmation bias leads us to selectively gather evidence that supports our views while ignoring contradictory information. By actively seeking out opposing arguments and considering them objectively, we can counteract this bias and form a more well-rounded opinion.

Doing the work also means being aware of our circle of competence. Understanding our limitations and knowing when to follow the rules and when they will get us in trouble is crucial for making rational decisions. It requires continuous learning, modification, and even destruction of our ideas.

In his advice, Munger emphasizes the importance of being able to state the arguments for the other side better than our opponents. This mental discipline ensures that we are not just blindly clinging to our own opinions, but rather engaging in thoughtful and informed discussions.

Survivorship bias, on the other hand, leads us to focus only on the successes and overlook the failures. When we only consider the survivors, we miss out on valuable lessons that can be learned from past failures. The tale of forgotten failures reminds us of the importance of considering the full picture and not just the success stories.

To overcome survivorship bias, we must actively seek out and study past failures. By understanding the factors that led to those failures, we can gain valuable insights and avoid making the same mistakes. Learning from both the successes and failures allows us to have a more accurate understanding of the world and make better decisions.

In conclusion, both "The Work Required to Have an Opinion" and "Survivorship Bias: The Tale of Forgotten Failures" emphasize the importance of putting in the effort to form well-informed opinions and avoid biases. By doing the work, we can challenge our beliefs, consider different perspectives, and make more rational decisions. To overcome survivorship bias, we must actively study past failures and learn from them.

Three actionable advice to apply in our lives are:

1. Seek out opposing arguments and consider them objectively. Actively challenge your own beliefs and strive to argue against yourself better than others can.
2. Continuously learn and modify your ideas. Be open to new information and be willing to destroy your ideas when necessary.
3. Study past failures and learn from them. Understand the factors that led to those failures and use them as valuable lessons to make better decisions in the future.

By following these advice, we can become more intellectually honest, avoid biases, and make more informed decisions in our personal and professional lives. Doing the work required to have an opinion and considering both successes and failures will lead us to a more accurate understanding of the world.