Navigating Change: Medicare Advantage and Turkey's Global Ambitions

Ben H.

Hatched by Ben H.

Sep 25, 2023

4 min read


Navigating Change: Medicare Advantage and Turkey's Global Ambitions


The Medicare Advantage program is on the brink of significant changes that will reshape the landscape for payers. Simultaneously, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is focusing on solidifying Turkey's position as a global power. Although seemingly unrelated, both scenarios require strategic responses to navigate the evolving landscapes. This article explores the impending shifts in the Medicare Advantage program and Turkey's aspirations on the world stage, highlighting the need for adaptability and proactive measures.

Medicare Advantage: Adapting to Sweeping Changes

The Medicare Advantage program is set to undergo its most substantial transformations in over two decades. Payers must take immediate action to prepare for these changes and respond effectively. With an aging population and the slowing growth of MA membership, payers must seek opportunities in historically less penetrated markets, such as rural areas. This strategic shift requires the development of networks and capabilities to cater to these populations.

Challenges in Medicare Advantage:

  • 1. MA Rates: Payers face a 1.12 percent effective MA rate decrease, resulting in an average loss of $150 per member per year. Adjusting to this decline demands nimble responses from payers to mitigate potential financial impacts.
  • 2. Risk Adjustment: CMS's refreshed risk adjustment model brings MA rates down by 2.16 percent on average. Payers must prioritize risk adjustment as they navigate CMS's Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) Final Rule, which aims to recoup $4.7 billion over the next decade.
  • 3. Star Ratings: CMS reduced payment rates by 1.24 percent for low average MA Star ratings. Payers must address declining Star ratings and anticipate further headwinds resulting from technical changes and the introduction of the health equity index (HEI).
  • 4. Part D Changes: Payers will be prohibited from collecting back-end payments from pharmacies and assume greater responsibility for catastrophic drug coverage. This change will lead to a loss of over $11 billion in plan revenue from lost DIR fees.

Turkey's Global Aspirations:

After securing victory in a significant election, President Erdogan is now focused on consolidating Turkey's position as a global power. He sees the conquest of Istanbul as a symbol of the country's historical might and envisions his presidency as a turning point in history. Erdogan aims to redefine Turkey's place on the world stage, emphasizing its historical significance and the strength of its people.

Turkey's Path to Global Power:

  • 1. Historical Significance: Erdogan draws inspiration from Turkey's past conquests and seeks to reclaim its role as a powerful nation. By invoking the conquest of Istanbul, he aims to unite the Turkish people behind a shared vision of national greatness.
  • 2. Turning Point in History: Erdogan views his re-election as a pivotal moment that will shape Turkey's future. He believes that this period will be recorded as a historic turning point, emphasizing the importance of his presidency in realizing Turkey's aspirations.
  • 3. Fixing Turkey's Place on the Map: To solidify Turkey's position as a global power, Erdogan is determined to enhance its international standing. He aims to strengthen diplomatic relations, expand economic influence, and assert Turkey's leadership in regional affairs.


Adapting to change is crucial for both the Medicare Advantage program and Turkey's global ambitions. Payers must proactively respond to the sweeping changes in Medicare Advantage to navigate the shifting landscape successfully. Similarly, Turkey, under President Erdogan's leadership, seeks to redefine its place on the world stage by leveraging historical significance and strategic initiatives. To thrive in uncertain times, it is essential for organizations and countries alike to embrace agility and seize opportunities for growth.

Actionable Advice:

  • 1. Foster Adaptability: Payers should prioritize building networks and capabilities to cater to historically less penetrated markets, preparing for future growth opportunities.
  • 2. Enhance Risk Adjustment Strategies: Payers must proactively respond to CMS's Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) Final Rule and optimize risk adjustment models to mitigate financial impacts.
  • 3. Focus on Quality Measures: Payers should prioritize improving Star ratings by addressing technical changes, disaster provisions, and the health equity index (HEI) to maintain a competitive advantage in the Medicare Advantage market.

Remember, embracing change and seizing opportunities are crucial for success in the evolving landscape of healthcare and global dynamics.

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