A Conversation with Admiral Aquilino

TL;DR

Admiral Aquilino discusses Indo-Pacific security challenges and multilateral partnerships.

Transcript

BOIES: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to  our meeting today with Admiral John Aquilino, who is the combatant commander, the commander  of the INDOPACOM. I am Mary Boies. I’m a lawyer here in New York, and I’m going to ask him  questions for thirty minutes and then we will   turn it over to you. We are on the record. So Admiral Aquilino is a fighte... Read More

Key Insights

• Admiral Aquilino identifies China, North Korea, and Russia as primary adversaries in the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing their interconnected strategic objectives.
• China's aggressive actions in the Philippines and Taiwan highlight its broader goal of global hegemony, challenging international norms and sovereignty.
• The U.S. and like-minded nations are countering China's aggression through diplomatic denouncements and multilateral cooperation, emphasizing the importance of alliances.
• The Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines could be triggered by aggressive actions, though policy decisions on this matter remain with political leadership.
• China's military advancements, including increased fighter aircraft and missile capabilities, indicate its readiness to potentially invade Taiwan by 2027.
• The U.S. is accelerating its deterrent capabilities in the Indo-Pacific through initiatives like the Joint Mission Accelerator Directorate.
• North Korea remains a threat due to its focus on regime security and military advancements, despite its economic struggles.
• Russia's presence in the Pacific and its cooperation with China pose additional security concerns, requiring coordinated U.S. military responses.

Questions & Answers

Q: What are the primary security challenges in the Indo-Pacific according to Admiral Aquilino?

Admiral Aquilino identifies China, North Korea, and Russia as the primary security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. He emphasizes their interconnected strategic objectives to displace the United States and push authoritarianism into the region. Additionally, he highlights the threat of violent extremism, particularly in the Southern Philippines, as a significant concern.

Q: How is China challenging the sovereignty of the Philippines?

China is challenging the sovereignty of the Philippines through aggressive actions in the South China Sea, particularly around Second Thomas Shoal. Despite a 2016 tribunal invalidating China's claims, it continues to assert sovereignty over Philippine waters. Actions include using water cannons, ramming vessels, and employing military-grade lasers against the Philippine coast guard.

Q: What is the U.S. response to China's aggression in the Indo-Pacific?

The U.S. response to China's aggression involves strengthening alliances with like-minded nations and issuing diplomatic denouncements. Admiral Aquilino commends the leadership of the Philippines for rallying international support against China's actions. The U.S. emphasizes the importance of multilateral partnerships and integrated deterrence to counter China's strategic objectives.

Q: What are China's military objectives concerning Taiwan?

China's military objectives concerning Taiwan involve being ready to invade by 2027, as per President Xi's directive. The PLA's military budget has increased, focusing on delivering capabilities such as fifth-generation aircraft, missile systems, and advanced warships. Despite economic challenges, China prioritizes military advancements to potentially unify Taiwan with mainland China by force.

Q: How does Admiral Aquilino view the relationship between China and Russia?

Admiral Aquilino views the relationship between China and Russia as concerning, particularly their increased cooperation in military operations. This partnership poses a strategic challenge, as both nations aim to displace U.S. influence and promote authoritarianism. The collaboration includes joint military exercises and coordination in regions like the Pacific and Arctic.

Q: What role does Guam play in U.S. security architecture in the Indo-Pacific?

Guam is considered the cornerstone of U.S. security architecture west of the international dateline. It serves as a critical operational base for U.S. military forces, with facilities like Andersen Air Force Base and Naval Base Guam. The island's infrastructure supports logistics, air, and naval operations, making it essential for sustaining military presence and readiness in the region.

Q: What challenges does the U.S. face in maintaining its Defense Industrial Base?

The U.S. faces challenges in maintaining its Defense Industrial Base due to issues like limited shipyard capacity, workforce shortages, and supply chain constraints. Despite consistent demand signals from the Department of Defense, the industrial base struggles to meet production needs. Admiral Aquilino emphasizes the need for shared risk between the government and industry to address these challenges.

Q: How does Admiral Aquilino view the potential for dialogue with China's military counterparts?

Admiral Aquilino has been requesting dialogue with his Chinese military counterparts for three years without success. He believes that operational-level communication is crucial to prevent accidents and miscalculations. However, he is skeptical that such dialogue would occur during a crisis, as evidenced by past incidents like the 2001 EP-3 mishap, where communication was delayed.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Admiral Aquilino discusses the strategic challenges posed by China, North Korea, and Russia in the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing the need for multilateral partnerships and integrated deterrence. He highlights China's aggressive actions in the Philippines and Taiwan, and the interconnectedness of these adversaries' strategic goals.

• The Admiral stresses the importance of alliances and partnerships, commending the Philippines and other nations for standing up against China's aggressive behavior. He also outlines the U.S.'s commitment to accelerating deterrent capabilities through initiatives like the Joint Mission Accelerator Directorate.

• Aquilino addresses the potential for conflict in Taiwan, China's military buildup, and the implications of the Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. He also discusses North Korea's regime security focus and Russia's Pacific presence, underscoring the need for coordinated U.S. military efforts.