Conflict Prevention Priorities: Three Things to Know

TL;DR

U.S. focuses on Syria, Iran, and East Asia conflicts.

Transcript

Preventing the outbreak of violent conflict in the world and mitigating its harmful consequences when it happens have long been primary goals of US foreign policy. Every year, CFR's Center for Preventive Action surveys leading experts to rank plausible contingencies for their potential impact on U.S. interests and their likelihood of occurring in t... Read More

Key Insights

• The Center for Preventive Action conducts an annual survey to rank conflict prevention priorities based on their potential impact on U.S. interests and likelihood of occurrence.
• Syria's civil war is a top priority due to its high likelihood and significant impact on U.S. interests, including potential spillover effects into neighboring countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan.
• The possibility of Syria losing control over its chemical weapons is a major U.S. concern, with President Obama issuing public warnings to the Syrian regime.
• Iran's nuclear standoff remains a significant issue, with the potential for an Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities being plausible and potentially destabilizing the region.
• A military incident involving China and the U.S. or its allies over territorial disputes in East Asia, particularly the East China Sea, is considered plausible and could harm U.S. interests.
• Tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea have escalated, with public antipathy on both sides of the Sino-Japanese dispute running high.
• If a Sino-Japanese armed clash occurs, the U.S. could be drawn in due to treaty obligations to Japan.
• The Preventive Priorities Survey provides a comprehensive analysis of potential conflicts and their implications for U.S. foreign policy.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why is Syria's civil war a top priority for U.S. conflict prevention?

Syria's civil war is a top priority due to its high likelihood of continuation and significant impact on U.S. interests. The conflict poses risks of regional spillover into NATO ally Turkey and neighboring countries like Lebanon and Jordan. Additionally, the potential loss of control over Syria's chemical weapons stockpile is a major concern for U.S. security.

Q: What are the potential consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities?

An Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could destabilize the Middle East region and embroil the U.S. in a broader conflict. Iran may retaliate, leading to military engagements that could affect global oil supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation could also heighten terrorist threats against U.S. interests and allies.

Q: How might a Sino-Japanese clash in the East China Sea affect the U.S.?

A Sino-Japanese clash in the East China Sea could affect the U.S. due to its treaty obligations to defend Japan. Such a conflict could escalate tensions in the region and potentially involve U.S. military forces. The dispute over the islands has already heightened public antipathy, increasing the risk of confrontation and impacting U.S. geopolitical strategies.

Q: What are the main concerns regarding Syria's chemical weapons?

The main concerns regarding Syria's chemical weapons are the potential use by the Assad regime or the loss of control over these stockpiles. Such scenarios could lead to catastrophic humanitarian consequences and pose direct threats to regional stability. The U.S. has publicly warned Syria against using chemical weapons, highlighting the seriousness of this issue.

Q: Why is the Preventive Priorities Survey important for U.S. foreign policy?

The Preventive Priorities Survey is important for U.S. foreign policy as it identifies and ranks potential conflicts based on their impact on U.S. interests and likelihood of occurrence. This helps policymakers prioritize resources and strategies to prevent or mitigate conflicts that could affect national security and global stability.

Q: What role does public sentiment play in the East Asia territorial disputes?

Public sentiment plays a significant role in East Asia territorial disputes, particularly in the Sino-Japanese conflict. High levels of public antipathy on both sides can escalate tensions and increase the likelihood of confrontation. Nationalistic sentiments may pressure governments to take a hardline stance, complicating diplomatic efforts to resolve disputes peacefully.

Q: How does the survey assess the likelihood of conflicts?

The survey assesses the likelihood of conflicts by consulting leading experts who evaluate plausible contingencies based on current geopolitical trends and historical data. These assessments consider factors such as political instability, military capabilities, and regional dynamics to determine the probability of conflicts occurring in the near future.

Q: What are the implications of regional spillover from Syria's conflict?

Regional spillover from Syria's conflict could destabilize neighboring countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, exacerbating existing tensions and humanitarian crises. Such spillover could lead to increased refugee flows, cross-border violence, and heightened regional instability, posing significant challenges for U.S. foreign policy and international humanitarian efforts.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The Center for Preventive Action's annual survey identifies Syria's civil war, Iran's nuclear standoff, and East Asia territorial disputes as top conflict prevention priorities for the U.S. in 2013. These issues are deemed likely to occur and have significant impacts on U.S. interests, requiring strategic attention and potential intervention.

• Syria's civil war poses a high risk due to its potential spillover into neighboring countries and concerns over chemical weapons. The Syrian opposition has gained recognition, but the conflict remains a major focus for U.S. foreign policy, with implications for regional stability and humanitarian concerns.

• Iran's nuclear situation is tense, with the possibility of an Israeli strike on nuclear facilities. Such actions could destabilize the region and involve the U.S. in a broader conflict. Additionally, territorial disputes in East Asia, particularly involving China and Japan, present plausible risks that could draw in the U.S. due to alliance commitments.