The Future of Transatlantic Relations in a Second Trump Term

TL;DR

Discusses potential impacts of a second Trump term on transatlantic relations.

Transcript

MATTHIJS: All right. Good afternoon,  everybody. Welcome to today’s Council on   Foreign Relations Transition 2025 Series  meeting on “The Future of Transatlantic Relations.” I am Matthias Matthijs. I’m a  senior fellow for Europe here at the Council, and I will be presiding over today’s discussion.  Note that this meeting, we could have it  every ... Read More

Key Insights

• The European Union anticipates challenges from a second Trump administration, particularly with new tariffs on steel and aluminum, which could strain economic relations.
• Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, emphasizing deal-making over details, poses challenges for European unity, especially regarding security issues like Ukraine.
• The EU faces a dilemma in responding to U.S. tariffs, uncertain whether to adopt a negotiation or coercion strategy similar to U.S.-China or U.S.-Mexico/Canada relations.
• Europe's defense strategy is under scrutiny, with calls for increased investment in military capabilities, though significant industrial capacity gaps remain compared to the U.S.
• Germany's upcoming elections could influence European defense policy, with potential shifts towards increased military spending and leadership in European security.
• NATO's future under a Trump administration is uncertain, with potential shifts in U.S. commitments prompting Europe to consider greater self-reliance in defense.
• The EU's anti-coercion instrument, initially aimed at China, may be considered against the U.S., though its implementation is complex and politically sensitive.
• There is a growing recognition of the need for Europe to address its own security challenges independently, though this is hindered by economic constraints and political divisions.

Questions & Answers

Q: How is the European Union preparing to respond to new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum?

The European Union is considering its response to new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, reminiscent of earlier trade tensions. The EU faces a dilemma in choosing between a negotiation strategy similar to U.S.-China relations or a coercion approach like U.S.-Mexico/Canada. The situation is complicated by potential economic and political impacts, as well as the need to maintain European unity.

Q: What are the potential impacts of Trump's transactional foreign policy on Europe?

Trump's transactional foreign policy, which emphasizes deal-making over details, poses significant challenges for Europe. This approach can lead to divisive issues, particularly regarding security matters like Ukraine. European countries may face difficulties in maintaining unity as Trump's policies could encourage bilateral deals with individual nations, undermining collective EU strategies.

Q: What role does Germany's upcoming election play in European defense policy?

Germany's upcoming election is crucial for European defense policy. The lead candidate, Friedrich Merz, is seen as advocating for increased military spending and a stronger role for Germany in European security. This election could influence Germany's commitment to defense investments and its leadership in addressing transatlantic security challenges, especially in the context of a potentially less supportive U.S. administration.

Q: What are the prospects for NATO under a second Trump administration?

NATO's future under a second Trump administration is uncertain, with potential shifts in U.S. commitments prompting Europe to consider greater self-reliance in defense. The new administration's stance on defense spending and investment will be closely watched, as European countries may need to increase their contributions to ensure collective security, especially in light of ongoing challenges like the situation in Ukraine.

Q: How might the EU's anti-coercion instrument be used against the U.S.?

The EU's anti-coercion instrument, initially developed to address challenges from China, could theoretically be used against the U.S. in response to tariffs. However, its implementation is complex and politically sensitive, as the EU aims to negotiate rather than escalate tensions. The instrument serves as a potential tool in trade negotiations but is unlikely to be used aggressively against the U.S. due to the broader geopolitical implications.

Q: What are the main challenges in increasing European defense capabilities?

Increasing European defense capabilities faces several challenges, including significant industrial capacity gaps compared to the U.S. European countries need to address these gaps through substantial investments in defense technology and infrastructure. Additionally, political and economic constraints, such as budgetary limitations and differing threat perceptions, complicate efforts to enhance military capabilities and achieve greater strategic autonomy.

Q: How does the panel view the threat perception from Russia in Europe?

The panel discusses the varying threat perceptions of Russia across Europe. While Eastern European countries perceive a more immediate threat, Western European nations may not view Russia's military as an existential threat due to its weakened state following the conflict in Ukraine. However, the panel acknowledges the importance of addressing non-military threats, such as cyber security and infrastructure protection, to bolster European security.

Q: What are the implications of potential European defense autonomy for transatlantic relations?

Potential European defense autonomy could have significant implications for transatlantic relations. While greater self-reliance in defense could reduce dependence on the U.S., it also raises questions about the future role of NATO and the balance of power within the alliance. Achieving autonomy requires substantial investments and political will, and it could lead to shifts in how Europe and the U.S. collaborate on security issues, potentially redefining their strategic partnership.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The discussion explores the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on transatlantic relations, focusing on economic and security challenges. The EU is preparing for new tariffs on steel and aluminum, reminiscent of earlier trade tensions. The panelists discuss the implications for European unity and defense policy.

• Nathalie Tocci highlights the transactional nature of Trump's foreign policy, emphasizing deal-making and its potential divisive effects on Europe, particularly concerning security issues like Ukraine. The EU's response to U.S. tariffs is uncertain, with debates on adopting a negotiation or coercion strategy.

• Germany's upcoming elections are seen as pivotal for European defense policy, with potential shifts towards increased military spending and leadership in European security. The discussion also touches on NATO's future and the EU's anti-coercion instrument as a response to U.S. policies.