Stefan Wolff: The path to ending ethnic conflicts

TL;DR

Despite the persistent presence of ethnic conflicts and civil wars, there has been a decline in their occurrences over the past two decades, thanks to the importance of leadership, diplomacy, and institutional design.

Transcript

Today I want to talk to you about ethnic conflict and civil war. These are not normally the most cheerful of topics, nor do they generally generate the kind of good news that this conference is about. Yet, not only is there at least some good news to be told about fewer such conflicts now than two decades ago, but what is perhaps more important is ... Read More

Key Insights

Civil wars and ethnic conflicts have decreased over the past two decades, bringing some good news amidst the ongoing violence and suffering. Leadership, diplomacy, and institutional design are crucial factors in preventing and reducing conflicts, as well as ensuring long-lasting peace. Despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and other regions, the overall trend shows a decline in the number of civil wars. The number of deaths in civil wars has also decreased, with a significant decline in civilian casualties. Different factors contribute to the prevention or resolution of conflicts, including military victories, negotiated settlements, and the deployment of peacekeepers. Successful examples of peace include Northern Ireland, Liberia, Macedonia, and Aceh, where local leaders, diplomacy, and well-designed institutions played important roles. Failures to achieve peace often result from leadership shortcomings, lack of effective diplomacy, and institutional weaknesses. Investing in developing leaders with the skills and determination to make peace is critical for preventing and ending conflicts. Ending civil wars is a complex and challenging process that requires the current generation to take responsibility and learn from past experiences to ensure a peaceful future.

Questions & Answers

Q: What factors contribute to the decline in civil wars and ethnic conflicts?

The decline in civil wars can be attributed to a combination of military victories, negotiated settlements, and the deployment of peacekeepers. However, the most important factors are strong leadership, effective diplomacy, and well-designed institutions that address the core concerns of all conflict parties.

Q: Are there any success stories in resolving conflicts in Africa?

Yes, the examples of Liberia, Macedonia, and Aceh demonstrate that leadership, diplomacy, and institutional design can lead to the prevention or resolution of conflicts in African countries. Local leaders who are committed to peace, along with international support, play a crucial role in achieving positive outcomes.

Q: What are the reasons for failures in achieving peace in conflicts like the Israeli/Palestinian conflict or the civil war in Sudan?

In the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, unresolved issues and disengagement from local and international leaders hindered the peace process. In Sudan, changes in leadership, shortcomings in international diplomacy, and institutional failures contributed to the persistence of conflict. Lack of imagination in designing institutions also limited the potential for conflict resolution.

Q: How can the lessons from successful conflict resolution be applied to ongoing conflicts?

Lessons from successful cases emphasize the importance of capable and visionary leadership, sustained diplomacy, and innovative institutional design. Conflict parties need to focus on substance over labels, be willing to reach a compromise, and be prepared to return to negotiations if implementation stalls. Local commitment to peace is crucial, but additional investment in developing trustworthy and skilled leaders is necessary for lasting peace.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Over the past two decades, there has been a decline in the number of civil wars, with 30% fewer conflicts today compared to the early 1990s.

• The number of people killed in civil wars has also decreased, with a notable decline in civilian casualties.

• Leadership, diplomacy, and institutional design play crucial roles in preventing and resolving conflicts, with successful examples seen in Northern Ireland, Liberia, Macedonia, and Aceh.