What Is Longtermism and Why Is It Important for the Future?

TL;DR

Longtermism advocates for considering the future of humanity and making moral progress a priority. It emphasizes the need for reason, empathy, and thoughtful debate to guide our values rather than merely accepting what has worked in the past. This perspective allows us to shape a better future for generations to come.

Transcript

you know we should not think we're at the end of model progress and we should not think oh we should lock in the kind of western values we have now instead we should think we want to ensure that we spend like a lot of time trying to figure out what's actually morally right so that the future is guided by the right values rather than merely whicheve... Read More

Key Insights

• 🧑‍🏭 Effective altruism gains traction due to specific historical and technological factors and events.
• 👋 Moral values are contingent, and current Western values may not be the best.
• 🦮 Long-termism emphasizes the importance of reason, empathy, and debate in guiding future values.
• 🧑‍🏭 The assessment of well-being and life satisfaction reveals complex factors that challenge traditional assumptions.
• 👨‍🔬 Balancing targeted actions and foundational research is essential in maximizing impact.
• 🪘 Institutions with longer lifespans have a stronger influence on long-term values.
• 🥶 The risk of co-option by present actors exists in long-termist policies.

Questions & Answers

Q: How does the effective altruist movement compare to historical precedents?

The effective altruist movement has gained traction due to the internet and specific lucky events, unlike similar ideas in history that did not have widespread impact.

Q: Should we trust current Western values as the best?

No, taking history seriously and appreciating the contingency of values emphasizes the need to continually assess and determine morally right values for the future.

Q: Is it more likely for Western values to be mediocre or worse?

Given the influence of historical contingencies, it is possible that Western values are not the best and that more time should be spent on determining morally right values.

Q: Is long-termism dangerous as it may lead to regression to the mean?

While moral progress is not a random walk, long-termism emphasizes the importance of reason, empathy, and debate to guide values before any drastic actions that might lock in a particular set of values are taken.

Q: Can cultural and societal institutions ensure long-term values?

Institutions with longer lifespans, such as universities and religious institutions, have a stronger influence on long-term values compared to short-lived institutions like corporations.

Q: Is it possible that long-termist policies can be easily co-opted by malicious actors?

Long-termist policies that aim to represent future generations face the risk of being co-opted by present actors. Implementing safeguards and feedback mechanisms can help mitigate this risk.

Q: Can corporations be considered the most long-term institutions?

No, corporations have shorter lifespans compared to institutions like universities or religious organizations. The goals and incentives of corporations differ significantly from those aiming for long-term impact.

Q: Are there risks in focusing too much on maximizing impact without considering foundational research?

By prioritizing specific measurable goals, there is a risk of missing foundational research that may be more impactful in the long term. Balancing targeted actions with a broader perspective is crucial.

Q: Why is there a shortage of individuals thinking about big picture questions?

Big picture questions often fall through the cracks of different disciplines and are deemed too speculative or grand for academia. Additionally, businesses do not prioritize work on such questions.

Q: Should academia devote more attention to big picture questions?

While academia has become more focused on incremental gains and specialization, there is value in having individuals dedicated to addressing big picture questions to ensure a holistic perspective.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Effective altruism, a movement focused on maximizing positive impact, is contingent on various factors and has historical precedents that were not as successful. Effective altruism gained traction due to the internet and specific lucky events.

• Moral values are contingent, and current Western values may not be the best. It is important to continually strive to determine morally right values for the future.

• The long reflection is a concept that suggests taking time for reason, empathy, debate, and inquiry to guide future values rather than locking in certain values prematurely.

• Interviews and studies reveal that Indians report higher life satisfaction despite lower GDP per capita, highlighting the complexity of assessing well-being.