Saudi Arabia Update: Rising Tensions, Strained Relations

TL;DR

Saudi Arabia faces internal and external challenges, primarily due to low oil prices and regional tensions.

Transcript

JEHL: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome. I think we can get started now, as long as everyone can hear me and hear all of us. I�m Douglas Jehl. I�m the foreign editor of The Washington Post. And welcome to today�s Council on Foreign Relations meeting. Just a couple reminders: This meeting is on the record, and please turn off cellphones so we�re not dis... Read More

Key Insights

• Saudi Arabia's internal challenges, such as economic diversification and youth unemployment, are seen as more pressing than external threats like Iran and ISIS.
• Iran is perceived as a major regional threat by Saudi Arabia, using non-state actors to exert influence across the Middle East.
• The Saudi government is attempting to shift its economy away from oil dependency, but this requires structural changes that are difficult to implement.
• Saudi Arabia's intervention in Yemen is costly and complicated, with the government seeking a way to exit the conflict while maintaining influence.
• The U.S.-Saudi relationship is strained, with Saudi Arabia questioning the reliability of the U.S. as an ally, especially in the context of U.S. dealings with Iran.
• Internally, the rivalry between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef is a source of tension, but the royal family is unlikely to engage in violent conflict.
• Saudi Arabia's foreign policy often involves financial support to maintain regional stability, but low oil prices are straining this approach.
• Despite criticisms of its role in spreading extremist ideologies, Saudi Arabia is sensitive to international perceptions and actively counters these narratives.

Questions & Answers

Q: What are the main internal challenges facing Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia's main internal challenges include economic diversification away from oil dependency, addressing youth unemployment, and managing the rivalry within the royal family. The government is attempting to implement structural changes to create a more sustainable economy, but these changes are difficult and require time.

Q: Why is Iran considered a major threat by Saudi Arabia?

Iran is considered a major threat by Saudi Arabia because it uses non-state actors to project influence across the Middle East, forming a geopolitical 'noose' around Saudi Arabia. This includes involvement in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and potentially Bahrain, which Saudi Arabia views as a zero-sum competition for regional dominance.

Q: How is Saudi Arabia attempting to diversify its economy?

Saudi Arabia is attempting to diversify its economy by growing non-oil revenue through measures such as implementing a value-added tax (VAT), restructuring state-owned companies, and developing other industries like gold and uranium mining. However, these efforts have been discussed previously without significant success, and achieving diversification remains challenging.

Q: What is the current state of the U.S.-Saudi relationship?

The U.S.-Saudi relationship is currently strained, with Saudi Arabia questioning the reliability of the U.S. as an ally, especially in light of U.S. dealings with Iran. Saudis are concerned about the U.S. willingness to compromise on issues like the Syrian conflict and the nuclear agreement with Iran, leading to a perception that the U.S. is not pursuing its own or Saudi interests in the region.

Q: How does Saudi Arabia view its involvement in Yemen?

Saudi Arabia views its involvement in Yemen as a break from its traditional use of clients to project influence. The military intervention is costly, both financially and in terms of human lives, and the government is seeking a way to exit the conflict while maintaining influence. Yemen is seen as a proxy for the Saudi-Iran conflict, with Iran's involvement being a primary concern.

Q: What are the implications of the rivalry between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef?

The rivalry between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef creates tension within the royal family, but the family has a history of resolving such issues without violence. The outcome of this rivalry could impact Saudi Arabia's future direction, particularly in terms of domestic policy and international relations.

Q: How does Saudi Arabia respond to criticisms of spreading extremist ideologies?

Saudi Arabia is very sensitive to international criticisms of spreading extremist ideologies and actively counters these narratives. The government argues that Wahhabism is a historical form of Islam not directly linked to modern terrorism and highlights its efforts to combat extremist groups domestically. Despite this, the perception persists, and Saudi Arabia continues to address it diplomatically.

Q: What role does Saudi Arabia's foreign policy play in regional stability?

Saudi Arabia's foreign policy often involves financial support to maintain regional stability, acting as an insurance policy to prevent chaos in neighboring countries. However, with low oil prices, this approach is becoming increasingly strained, challenging Saudi Arabia's ability to influence regional dynamics through financial means.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Saudi Arabia is grappling with both internal economic challenges and external geopolitical threats. The low oil prices are straining the economy, and efforts to diversify are crucial but difficult to achieve. Internally, the rivalry between key royal family members adds to the complexity.

• Externally, Iran is seen as a significant threat, using non-state actors to exert influence across the region. Saudi Arabia's military involvement in Yemen is costly and complicated, and the government is seeking a way to exit the conflict while maintaining influence.

• The U.S.-Saudi relationship is strained, with Saudi Arabia questioning the reliability of the U.S. as an ally, particularly in light of U.S. dealings with Iran. Despite criticisms of its role in spreading extremist ideologies, Saudi Arabia is sensitive to international perceptions and actively counters these narratives.