HBO What to Do About Syria

TL;DR

Experts debate U.S. strategy for Syria, considering military and diplomatic options.

Transcript

HAASS: Well, welcome, everybody. Feliz ano nuevo. Happy New Year. I think this may be the first event of the new year here, the first of what will be hundreds here in New York, as well as in Washington, as well as around the country. And like many of them, this will not simply be available to those of you in the room, but to those with access to al... Read More

Key Insights

• The Syrian conflict remains a dynamic stalemate, with neither side likely to achieve a decisive victory soon due to external support for the Assad regime.
• U.S. policy has focused on supporting the moderate opposition to pressure the Assad regime into a political transition, but this strategy has not yielded the desired results.
• The Russian military intervention in Syria has stabilized the Assad regime temporarily, complicating U.S. efforts to support the opposition.
• There is a debate over whether the U.S. should prioritize combating ISIS or focus on removing Assad to gain Sunni allies in the region.
• Some experts argue for a more flexible diplomatic approach that de-emphasizes immediate regime change in favor of reducing violence and chaos.
• Partition or federalization of Syria, with autonomous regions, is suggested as a potential solution to the conflict, though it raises concerns about long-term stability.
• The involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey is crucial, but their priorities often diverge from U.S. interests, complicating coalition efforts.
• Humanitarian concerns and the ongoing refugee crisis underscore the urgency of finding a viable solution to the Syrian conflict.

Questions & Answers

Q: What is the current state of the Syrian conflict?

The Syrian conflict is described as a dynamic stalemate, with ongoing fighting but no side likely to achieve a decisive victory soon. This is due in part to external support for the Assad regime from Russia and Iran, which has stabilized Assad's position temporarily.

Q: What has been the focus of U.S. policy in Syria?

U.S. policy has focused on supporting the moderate opposition with the goal of pressuring the Assad regime into a political transition. This has involved diplomatic and military efforts, though the strategy has not succeeded in achieving its objectives, partly due to the regime's strong external backing.

Q: How has the Russian intervention affected the conflict?

The Russian military intervention in Syria has stabilized the Assad regime, complicating U.S. efforts to support the opposition. Russia's involvement has given the regime a temporary reprieve, making it harder for the opposition to leverage their position for a political settlement.

Q: Why is there debate over U.S. priorities in Syria?

There is debate over whether the U.S. should prioritize combating ISIS or focus on removing Assad to gain Sunni allies. Some argue that aligning with Sunni powers is crucial for defeating ISIS, while others believe that reducing violence through a diplomatic approach is more realistic.

Q: What are the potential solutions discussed for Syria?

Potential solutions include the partition or federalization of Syria into autonomous regions, though this raises concerns about long-term stability and revenge attacks. The idea is to reflect the current realities on the ground and provide local governance to reduce conflict.

Q: What role do regional powers play in the conflict?

Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey play a crucial role, but their priorities often diverge from U.S. interests. Saudi Arabia prioritizes countering Iranian influence, while Turkey is concerned about Kurdish autonomy. Aligning these interests is essential for coalition efforts.

Q: What are the humanitarian concerns in the conflict?

The ongoing conflict has resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced. The refugee crisis highlights the urgency of finding a viable solution to reduce suffering and stabilize the region.

Q: How do experts view the potential for a ceasefire?

Experts suggest that a ceasefire, decoupled from immediate regime change, could help reduce violence and chaos. However, achieving this requires cooperation from all parties, including Russia and Iran, and a willingness to compromise on political objectives.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The discussion highlights the ongoing complexity of the Syrian conflict, with experts analyzing the effectiveness of U.S. policy and the impact of Russian intervention. While the U.S. has supported the moderate opposition, the lack of a decisive strategy has led to a prolonged stalemate.

• Experts debate whether the U.S. should shift its focus from ISIS to Assad, arguing that aligning with Sunni allies is crucial for any successful strategy. However, the challenge remains in balancing military action with diplomatic efforts to achieve a sustainable resolution.

• The notion of partitioning Syria into autonomous regions is explored as a potential solution, though concerns about revenge attacks and regional stability persist. The role of Saudi Arabia and Turkey is also examined, emphasizing the need for aligned interests to effectively address the conflict.