Despite Growing Opposition, AKP Remains the Dominant Force in Turkish Politics

TL;DR

Erdogan's AKP remains strong despite scandals and opposition.

Transcript

TEPPERMAN: Well, hello, everyone. And thank you for joining us. I'm Jonathan Tepperman, managing editor of Foreign Affairs Magazine. This is an on-the-record council meeting on Turkey. I was going to make a joke about the fact that Twitter has just been unblocked in Turkey and now may have been unblocked to the Council on Foreign Relations as well.... Read More

Key Insights

• Despite facing significant challenges, the AKP managed to secure a strong position in the recent municipal elections, indicating Erdogan's continued influence in Turkish politics.
• The opposition in Turkey lacks a coherent strategy and vision, which contributes to the AKP's continued success despite the controversies surrounding Erdogan.
• Erdogan's framing of political challenges as foreign conspiracies resonates with his core supporters, strengthening his base despite external criticism.
• The relationship between Erdogan and the Gulen movement has deteriorated, yet Erdogan's political acumen keeps him ahead in this internal conflict.
• Erdogan's presidential ambitions remain uncertain, with possible scenarios including remaining as prime minister or becoming president with a controlled prime minister.
• The peace process with the Kurds remains crucial, but Erdogan's erratic behavior and political calculations may hinder significant progress before upcoming elections.
• Turkey's foreign relations, particularly with the U.S. and Europe, have been strained due to Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies and controversial policies.
• Turkey's role in regional conflicts, such as Syria, and its relations with neighboring countries are complex and influenced by Erdogan's strategic calculations.

Questions & Answers

Q: How did the AKP perform in the recent municipal elections despite challenges?

The AKP managed to perform well in the municipal elections by securing control over major cities like Ankara and Istanbul. This success is attributed to Erdogan's political acumen and the lack of a coherent opposition. Despite losing some support, the AKP's ability to deliver tangible benefits like infrastructure and social services helped maintain its voter base.

Q: What is the current state of Erdogan's relationship with the Gulen movement?

Erdogan's relationship with the Gulen movement has soured significantly. Once allies against the military, the two have become adversaries, especially after corruption scandals linked to Gulenists. Erdogan has been able to maintain his political strength despite this rift, but the conflict has contributed to the internal challenges facing his administration.

Q: What are Erdogan's potential plans for the upcoming presidential elections?

Erdogan's plans for the presidential elections are uncertain. He may seek to become president, leveraging his control over the AKP to maintain influence. Alternatively, he might remain as prime minister by changing party bylaws. His decision will depend on political calculations, including the support within his party and the broader electorate.

Q: How has Erdogan's approach affected Turkey's foreign relations?

Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies and controversial policies have strained Turkey's relations with the U.S. and Europe. His rhetoric and actions have alienated traditional allies, complicating diplomatic ties. However, Turkey's strategic importance in regional issues like Syria and its role in NATO continue to necessitate engagement with Western countries.

Q: What is the status of the peace process with the Kurds?

The peace process with the Kurds is ongoing but faces challenges. While there is a ceasefire, significant progress is unlikely before the upcoming elections. Erdogan's political calculations and the rise of nationalist sentiments complicate efforts to address Kurdish demands for autonomy and cultural rights.

Q: What are the implications of Turkey's involvement in the Syrian conflict?

Turkey's involvement in Syria is complex, driven by Erdogan's goal of removing Assad. Despite initial support for opposition groups, including jihadists, Turkey faces challenges like refugee flows and security risks. The downing of a Syrian jet illustrates Turkey's active role, but broader engagement remains constrained by domestic and regional factors.

Q: How has Erdogan's control over the judiciary impacted Turkish politics?

Erdogan's increased control over the judiciary has reinforced his authoritarian grip on power. This control allows him to manage political challenges and suppress dissent. However, it undermines the rule of law and democratic institutions, contributing to the broader trend of democratic backsliding in Turkey.

Q: What is the outlook for a U.S.-Turkey free trade agreement?

The prospect of a U.S.-Turkey free trade agreement is uncertain. While economic ties are important, legal and policy challenges related to Turkey's customs union with the EU complicate negotiations. The current geopolitical climate and strained bilateral relations further reduce the likelihood of a comprehensive trade agreement in the near future.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The discussion highlights Erdogan's ability to maintain political dominance in Turkey despite facing numerous challenges, including protests, corruption scandals, and media censorship. The AKP's success is partly attributed to the lack of a strong opposition and Erdogan's strategic framing of political issues.

• The panelists discuss Erdogan's potential presidential ambitions, the implications of the AKP's electoral performance, and the ongoing peace process with the Kurds. They emphasize the importance of these factors in determining Turkey's political trajectory.

• Turkey's foreign relations, particularly with the U.S. and Europe, are strained due to Erdogan's authoritarian approach and controversial policies. The discussion also touches on Turkey's role in regional conflicts and its strategic alliances.