CFR Fellows' Book Launch: Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power

TL;DR

The U.S. failed to pivot to Asia, strengthening China's rise.

Transcript

LINDSAY: Good afternoon, everyone. I want  to welcome you to today’s Council on Foreign Relations Book Launch Series meeting. I am Jim  Lindsay, director of studies here at the Council. The topic of our discussion today is the new  book by Ambassador Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine, titled Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to  Asia and the Rise of ... Read More

Key Insights

• The U.S. pivot to Asia, announced in 2011, was intended to shift focus from Europe to Asia, but it never materialized, leading to a missed strategic opportunity.
• China's military and economic power surged during the decade, while the U.S. failed to follow through on its strategic pivot, weakening its position in Asia.
• The pivot was intended to enhance U.S.-China relations by increasing American presence in Asia, but it was not executed due to various geopolitical distractions.
• The pivot's failure is attributed to ongoing Middle East conflicts, budget constraints, and lack of a cohesive interagency strategy in the U.S. government.
• Diplomatic efforts in Asia were inconsistent, with initial attempts to engage Southeast Asia overshadowed by other global priorities.
• The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a key economic component of the pivot, but it was never ratified, further undermining U.S. economic influence in Asia.
• The U.S. faces skepticism at home about global engagement, complicating efforts to implement a comprehensive strategy to counter China's rise.
• The panelists argue that a renewed focus on Asia is necessary, but it must be balanced with commitments in Europe and the Middle East to maintain global influence.

Questions & Answers

Q: What was the intended purpose of the U.S. pivot to Asia?

The U.S. pivot to Asia was intended to shift American strategic focus from Europe to Asia, recognizing the region's growing economic and geopolitical importance. The pivot aimed to enhance U.S.-China relations by increasing American military, diplomatic, and economic presence in Asia, thereby balancing China's rising power and ensuring regional stability.

Q: Why did the pivot to Asia fail to materialize?

The pivot to Asia failed due to several factors, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East that diverted attention and resources, budget constraints from sequestration, and a lack of cohesive interagency strategy within the U.S. government. Additionally, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a key economic component, was never ratified, further undermining the pivot's success.

Q: How did China's power change during the 'lost decade'?

During the 'lost decade,' China's military and economic power grew significantly. The country expanded its military capabilities, increased its economic influence across Asia, and extended its diplomatic reach. This growth occurred while the U.S. failed to implement its pivot strategy, leading to a weakened American position in the region.

Q: What were the diplomatic efforts in Asia during the pivot?

Diplomatic efforts in Asia during the pivot were inconsistent. Initially, there were attempts to engage Southeast Asia and strengthen regional alliances, such as through the East Asia Summit and increased diplomatic visits. However, these efforts were overshadowed by other global priorities, leading to a lack of sustained engagement and strategic focus in the region.

Q: What role did the Trans-Pacific Partnership play in the pivot?

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was intended to be a key economic pillar of the pivot to Asia, promoting trade agreements and economic collaboration with Asian countries. However, the TPP was never ratified, as it faced political opposition and became entangled in U.S. presidential politics. Its failure to pass undermined the economic dimension of the pivot strategy.

Q: How does domestic skepticism affect U.S. global strategy?

Domestic skepticism about U.S. global engagement complicates efforts to implement a comprehensive strategy to counter China's rise. Many Americans view international involvement skeptically, especially following conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and perceive trade as harmful to domestic industries. This skepticism poses challenges for policymakers advocating for increased focus on Asia.

Q: What is the panelists' argument for a renewed focus on Asia?

The panelists argue that a renewed focus on Asia is necessary to address the strategic challenge posed by China's rise. They suggest that the U.S. must prioritize Asia while balancing commitments in Europe and the Middle East. This balanced approach requires diplomatic engagement, economic initiatives, and military readiness to maintain global influence and stability.

Q: Is it too late for the U.S. to catch up with China in Asia?

The panelists believe it is not too late for the U.S. to catch up with China in Asia. They argue that with political will and strategic focus, the U.S. can enhance its presence and influence in the region. This involves strengthening alliances, engaging in trade agreements, and reorienting military resources to counterbalance China's growing power.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The U.S. pivot to Asia, announced in 2011, was intended to shift focus from Europe to Asia, but it never materialized, leading to a missed strategic opportunity. China's military and economic power surged during the decade, while the U.S. failed to follow through on its strategic pivot, weakening its position in Asia.

• The pivot's failure is attributed to ongoing Middle East conflicts, budget constraints, and lack of a cohesive interagency strategy in the U.S. government. Diplomatic efforts in Asia were inconsistent, with initial attempts to engage Southeast Asia overshadowed by other global priorities.

• The U.S. faces skepticism at home about global engagement, complicating efforts to implement a comprehensive strategy to counter China's rise. The panelists argue that a renewed focus on Asia is necessary, but it must be balanced with commitments in Europe and the Middle East to maintain global influence.