Mechanisms to Infer the Wisdom of the Crowd with Mallesh M. Pai | a16z crypto research talks | Summary and Q&A

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September 9, 2022
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Mechanisms to Infer the Wisdom of the Crowd with Mallesh M. Pai | a16z crypto research talks

TL;DR

This content explores the concept of aggregating experts' beliefs and proposes a mechanism called Population Mean-Based Aggregation (PMBA). PMBA shows promising results in practice and allows for the elicitation of higher-order beliefs.

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Questions & Answers

Q: What is the main focus of the speaker's talk?

The speaker's talk focuses on the aggregation of experts' beliefs and the development of Population Mean-Based Aggregation (PMBA) as a mechanism for aggregating these beliefs.

Q: How does PMBA differ from other aggregation mechanisms?

PMBA differs from other mechanisms as it considers the average beliefs of multiple agents rather than relying on a majority vote. It also has the potential to elicit higher-order beliefs from experts.

Q: Can PMBA be applied in practical settings?

The speaker presents evidence from studies in state capital knowledge, general knowledge, and dermatology, showing that PMBA performs well in practice. This suggests that PMBA could be applied in practical settings.

Q: What are the assumptions and limitations of PMBA?

PMBA assumes that the population average beliefs differ across states and that the space of possible beliefs has an interior relative to the set of priors. It may also rely on the assumption that agents have meaningful information about what others know. The limitations may include scalability issues and the need for agents to have some understanding of the information structure.

Summary & Key Takeaways

  • The speaker discusses the importance of aggregating experts' beliefs to evaluate their expertise, particularly in decentralized oracles in the web 3 setting.

  • A specific model is presented, where agents have limited information about the unknown state of the world, and PMBA is introduced as a mechanism for aggregating their beliefs.

  • The PMBA mechanism is shown to perform well in various studies, including state capital knowledge, general knowledge, and dermatology, and it can also be used for eliciting higher-order beliefs.

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