Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

By Philip E. Tetlock
"Expert Political Judgement" by Philip E. Tetlock is a groundbreaking exploration of the accuracy of political forecasts and the potential biases that hinder informed decision-making.

Drawing from two decades of research, Tetlock challenges prevailing assumptions about political expertise by analyzing thousands of predictions made by experts across various domains. Contrary to popular belief, he argues that political experts often perform no better than chance when making predictions.

Tetlock identifies two broad styles of thinking: foxes, who embrace nuance and are open to multiple perspectives, and hedgehogs, who rely on simplistic models and are prone to overconfidence. By examining the track records of both groups, he reveals that foxes outshine hedgehogs in forecasting political events.

Moreover, Tetlock explores the psychological factors that contribute to flawed judgement in the political realm. He uncovers the dangers of ideological biases, exaggerated self-belief, and the importance of being aware of cognitive limitations.

Through in-depth analysis and thought-provoking examples, Tetlock provides readers with valuable insights to improve political judgement. This engaging and thought-provoking work challenges conventional wisdom and inspires individuals to adopt a more nuanced and self-reflective approach to making political predictions.

In a world dominated by uncertainty and ever-increasing complexity, "Expert Political Judgement" offers a timely and indispensable resource for understanding the limits of political expertise and becoming more adept at navigating the intricacies of political decision-making.
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